The Los Angeles Chargers enter the 2024-25 NFL betting season with significant changes in both the front office and coaching staff. Fortunately, the Brandon Staley era has ended after he was dismissed following the team's disastrous 63-21 defeat to the Raiders in the rival’s Week 15 clash in the desert under the Thursday night lights. Despite numerous question marks and problem areas on the roster for the upcoming season, the NFL betting market appears optimistic about the new regime's ability to turn the team's fortunes around. While I believe Jim Harbaugh will ultimately succeed, it will take time, leading me to think that LA won’t have the tools in the chest or success needed to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs in the division or compete for a wild-card spot this year. Let’s closely examine the Chargers’ offseason to see if we can uncover insights that will help us make an informed decision on how to bet into their season win total odds at the online sportsbook.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Los Angeles Chargers 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Chargers Over 8.5 Wins -168
Chargers Under 8.5 Wins +147
A Case for the Over: The Chargers are a team I find difficult to predict heading into the regular season. The organization underwent sweeping changes, from the coaching staff and front office to the roster itself. The shifts in offensive and defensive philosophies add to the uncertainty. Last season, the Chargers were plagued by devastating injuries and heartbreakingly close losses, leaving wounds that haven't fully healed. Despite this, the NFL betting market is optimistic that Jim Harbaugh and his new staff will be the remedy the team needs evidenced by the hefty chalk currently attached to the over of the team’s season win total odds. A significant factor in this optimism is Justin Herbert, who will be entering his fifth season as the Chargers' quarterback. He's eager to make up for lost time after incurring a season-ending hand injury last year. New GM Joe Hortiz has bolstered his offensive line by signing C Bradley Bozeman in free agency and selecting Notre Dame OT Joe Alt with the fifth pick in the NFL Draft. Hortiz also added UGA WR Ladd McConkey to the receiving corps, which now lacks Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. New OC Greg Roman is expected to rejuvenate a running game that struggled last year. The Chargers lost eight one-score games last season; Harbaugh's coaching expertise could help improve the team's performance in close contests.
A Case for the Under: Although NFL bettors have heavily favored the over since the win total was released, linemakers initially signaled a cautious outlook on the Chargers by setting their win total a full game lower than last season's 9.5-game impost. This marks the team's second-lowest target in the past seven years, with LA aiming to snap a five-year under streak and return to the playoffs off a year hiatus. Despite recording 10 and nine-win seasons in the two years before last season's disaster, the Chargers face a tough start with three of their first four opponents potentially vying for division titles and playoff spots. It's not an ideal beginning schedule for a team undergoing significant changes on both sides of the ball. The schedule becomes more manageable in the latter half of the first eight games, which is likely when the team starts to find its rhythm. However, a brutal stretch follows, featuring games against the Bengals, Ravens, @Falcons, and @Chiefs from weeks 11-14. The Chargers will need to at least split those games to keep over bettors satisfied, but they’re currently lined as the underdog side in each matchup according to the online sportsbook.
2024-25 Los Angeles Chargers Schedule
The Chargers have been handed a gift by the football gods with what Sharp Football Analysis rates as the second-easiest schedule strength among all 32 teams. Despite Harbaugh’s pedigree and top-tier talent on both sides of the ball, I can’t risk my bankroll on this underachieving roster again. I backed the over on Los Angeles' season win total for the past three seasons and suffered painful losses, making me hesitant to do so once more. Although only one of their first nine opponents and four overall are currently favored to make the playoffs, I need to see tangible improvement to believe it. Nine of their 17 games will be played away from home, though that might not matter much given the Chargers' historically weak home-field advantage. Maybe Harbaugh can change that dynamic, but I’m skeptical. I'm not confident in the backfield and wide receiver corps, and the secondary still has significant issues after getting ripped for just short of 250 yards per game a season ago. Supplanted in the rough and tugged AFC, I’m not expecting immediate success under the new regime. Therefore, I will fade the hype surrounding Harbaugh’s return to the West Coast and bank on the Bolts hitting the under of their season win total odds a sixth straight time.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers Under 8.5 Wins
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