The Los Angeles Rams entered last season with low expectations, having a 6.5-game win total and heavy juice on the under. They started as 10-1 underdogs to win the NFC West and -375 favorites to miss the playoffs. However, they defied oddsmakers by winning 10 games, and challenging the 49ers for division supremacy before settling for a wild-card bid. This unexpected success has raised expectations for the 2024 campaign, with the Rams expected to finish just behind San Francisco in the final division standings while being viewed as a coin flip favorite to return to the playoffs. Sean McVay's leadership has been pivotal, leading the team to two Super Bowls, winning one, and punching postseason bids five times since 2017. Due to Aaron Donald's retirement, GM Les Snead bolstered the defensive front and back seven with talented additions through the both the draft and free agency. These moves should help support an already potent Rams offense, which could improve further with a healthy Cooper Kupp pairing up with standout Puka Nacua who just fell short of capturing the Rookie of the Year Award.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Los Angeles Rams 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Rams Over 8.5 Wins -153
Rams Under 8.5 Wins +133
A Case for the Over: The Rams boasted a potent offense last season, ranking seventh overall in accruing just short of 360 yards per game while putting nearly 24 points a game on the scoreboard (No. 9). They maintained a balanced attack, with the passing game averaging 239.0 yards per game (No. 10) while rushing for north of 120 yards per game (No. 11). Matthew Stafford, returning from an injury-shortened 2022-23 campaign, started 15 games, throwing for 3,965 yards and 24:11 TD/INT ratio. The offensive line, significantly improved from the previous season, allowed only 34 sacks (No. 6) thanks to strong guard play from Kevin Dotson and Steve Avila. This protection helped Stafford turn rookie receiver Puka Nacua into a player prop sensation after the rookie turned his 105 receptions into 1,486 yards and 6 TDs. Kyren Williams, despite missing games early on, amassed 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns through 12 overall games. To bolster the running game and overall effectiveness of the offense, the Rams drafted Michigan RB Blake Corum and signed for Lions G Jonah Jackson to a three-year $51M deal. When At full strength, this unit was a juggernaut. All the pertinent pieces, plus some additions, return for another run at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy of which LA currently offers up an attractive 30-1 return on investment at the online sportsbook.
A Case for the Under: Raheem Morris deserves recognition for transforming a defense filled with unheralded players into the league’s No. 20 ranked scoring defense (22.3 PPG) that boasted an impressive run defense (No. 12). While he had Donald in the middle of the line to garner copious amounts of attention from opposing offensive lines, Morris did a fantastic job with last year’s rookie crop with the work put in resulting in DT Kobie Turner and LB Byron Young combining for 19 sacks. Unfortunately, both Morris and Donald won’t be in the mix for the 2024-25 NFL betting season with the former taking the Atlanta Falcons head coaching job and the latter deciding to hang up his cleats and call it a career. GM Les Snead did a commendable job adding talent to the defensive line by drafting FSU teammates Jared Verse and Braden Fiske in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, but it's unlikely they’ll make the coaching staff or fan base forget about how impactful No. 99 proved to be throughout his 10-year career. NFL bettors will now get a true sense as to just how good last year’s rookies were with Donald out of the picture. Additionally, the retooled secondary might struggle if the defense's pressure rate declines without the future Hall of Famer. Unless this year’s rookie crop steps up significantly, the Rams' defense could become the team's Achilles' heel.
2024-25 Los Angeles Rams Schedule
Looking at the NFL betting odds for the Rams' full 17-game schedule, Los Angeles is favored in 12 games. However, three of the five matchups where they are underdogs occur within the first four weeks (@Lions, 49ers, and @Bears). After the Week 6 bye, the Rams will only run up against five teams currently favored to make the playoffs, according to the current futures odds hung by oddsmakers at the online sportsbook. Overall, LA is slated to face the No. 17 ranked schedule strength, per Sharp Football Analysis, with the rest of the division similarly ranked. They also benefit from nine home games at SoFi Stadium, where they won five of eight games last season and logged four straight triumphs to close out the year (3-1 ATS). I misjudged the Rams' win total last season, as they overachieved in attaining 10 wins, pushing McVay's over record to 5-2 in his seven seasons as head coach. While roster depth is a concern and the injury bug could pose a threat to key veteran players, I will err on the side of caution and bank on the Rams making a run at matching or exceeding last year’s win total, even without No. 99 in the defensive huddle.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Los Angeles Rams Over 8.5 Wins
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