The Miami Dolphins will enter the 2024-25 NFL betting season with a chip on their shoulder after nearly snapping a 15-year AFC East title drought. Mike McDaniel’s squad appeared primed to dethrone Buffalo owners of a 9-3 record heading into Week 14. However, a surprising 28-27 loss to the Titans under the lights of Monday Night Football triggered an unfortunate collapse. Despite splitting their final four games, the two losses closed the year out, including the crucial home finale against the Bills allowing Buffalo to secure the AFC’s No. 2 seed and send Miami to Kansas City to face the reigning Super Bowl champions. Plagued by a multitude of defensive injuries and nagging ailments that hampered both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins struggled, falling 26-7 to Kansas City with only 264 yards of offense accrued in frigid Arrowhead. Weaknesses were exposed along both front lines, prompting GM Chris Grier to bolster the trenches on both sides of the ball through trades, free agency, and the NFL draft. Will the moves be enough to push the Fins towards achieving successive double-digit win tallies? Let’s take a deep dive on the offseason to help us make an informed decision on whether to support or fade the Dolphins current season win total odds currently posted at the online sportsbook.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Miami Dolphins 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Dolphins Over 9.5 Wins -130
Dolphins Under 9.5 Wins +110
A Case for the Over: No team marched a better aerial attack onto the gridiron than Miami did last season. Tua Tagovailoa threw for a career-high 4,624 yards, with 560 pass attempts—160 more than his previous high—thanks to playing all 17 regular season games for the first time in his 4-year career. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were his top targets, combining for 2,813 receiving yards despite neither playing a full season. Consequently, Miami boasted the league’s No. 1 passing offense, averaging nearly 266 yards per game. Complementing this was a strong rushing attack, ranking sixth with over 135 yards per game, led by Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane, and Jeff Wilson, who combined for 2,000 rushing yards. This season, all key players return, with additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jonnu Smith in free agency and Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright via the draft. If the retooled offensive line can gel quickly, the only potential hindrance to this high-powered, speed-driven offense would be injuries.
A Case for the Under: Two key performers along the lines of both sides of the ball have since departed. The offensive line lost standout Robert Hunt, who signed a lucrative free agent deal with Carolina in the offseason. On defense, Christian Wilkins, who contributed 9.0 sacks and numerous quarterback hits, is also gone. To compensate, GM Chris Grier selected Penn State EDGE Chop Robinson and Houston OT Patrick Paul with his first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, it will take time for these rookies to adjust to the NFL's fast-paced, frenetic style. Returning for the defense are Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, who combined for 17.5 sacks but each is coming off season-ending injuries. Their unfortunate absences significantly impacted Miami's end of season performance, leading to losses in four of their final six games. The early season success was largely due to a strong pass rush, and it's uncertain if the additions of veterans Calais Campbell and Shaquil Barrett will be enough to regain the edge that helped Miami exceed its 9.5-game season win total odds a season ago.
2024-25 Miami Dolphins Schedule
Finishing second in the AFC East, the Dolphins face a much easier schedule compared to the Buffalo Bills, who are the +167 favorites to win the division for the fifth consecutive time. While the Bills must contend with eight opponents favored to make the playoffs, Miami only faces six such teams and won't have to participate in an international game this time around. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Dolphins have the eighth easiest schedule based on their opponents' projected win totals, with only the rival Jets facing a weaker schedule. On the docket includes the AFC South and NFC West, along with island games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Green Bay Packers, and Cleveland Browns.
While the schedule appears manageable through Week 12 aside from facing the defending division champions twice, there are significant challenges ahead to close out the year. Miami faces tough matchups against the @Packers, Jets, @Texans, 49ers, @Browns, and @Jets from Weeks 13 to 18. Last season, Miami faltered down the stretch, leading to its playoff struggles in cold weather with a depleted roster. While those two potential cold weather spots in Cleveland and New York to finish the year set off warning signals, I think the Fins will have learned from last year’s failure and be able to overcome this time around. Speed kills, and the Dolphins have plenty of it entering the 2024 football betting season. Provided the injury bug steers clear of Miami Gardens this time around, I have the Fins pegged as the team to beat in division play and believe them to be serious Super Bowl LIX contenders.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Miami Dolphins Over 9.5 Wins
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