Through the first two months of the 2023-24 NFL betting season, the Minnesota Vikings were a .500 team that went 4-3-1 against the closing NFL odds, gaining momentum with three consecutive wins and covers. However, their fortunes changed drastically in the 24-10 outright win in Green Bay where Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending Achilles tear. Josh Dobbs stepped in heroically, leading a comeback win against the Atlanta Falcons the following week after coming over from Arizona, but the Vikings only managed two more victories the remainder of the season due to poor quarterback play and the multi-week absences of star WR Justin Jefferson and stud TE T.J. Hockenson. They finished with a 7-10 record, 8-7-2 against the NFL spread, and placed third in the NFC North after winning it the year prior. In the offseason, the Vikings chose not to re-sign Cousins, and instead drafted Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy with the tenth overall pick, aiming to make him their quarterback of the future. They also traded up to draft Alabama EDGE Dallas Turner giving DC Brian Flores another weapon to get after opposing quarterbacks. Despite having some nice pieces on both sides of the ball, the Vikings are still facing long odds across the board and are predicted to finish last in what is expected to be a highly competitive NFC North title race. So, should we buy or sell SKOL on the win total odds? Let’s analyze the offseason moves and team dynamics from an X’s and O’s perspective to make an informed decision.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Minnesota Vikings 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Vikings Over 6.5 Wins -170
Vikings Under 6.5 Wins +148
A Case for the Over: In his two seasons as head coach, Kevin O’Connell has demonstrated a sharp ability to lead an NFL team, guiding Minnesota to a 20-14 record while posting a 14-15-5 mark against the closing NFL odds. Despite being forced to use below-average options at quarterback last season and missing two key playmakers in the huddle, the Vikings remained competitive, with only two of their ten losses being by more than one score, both occurring in the final two weeks against divisional opponents. O’Connell has proven adept at maximizing the talent at his disposal. While the defense still has room for improvement despite several new additions, the offense has the potential to be electric again, having ranked tenth overall and averaging over 256 passing yards per game last season, even with Cousins sidelined for much of the year. If Sam Darnold revives his career in Minnesota or J.J. McCarthy thrives when given the opportunity, the Vikings have a strong chance of exceeding their win total at the online sportsbook, thanks to their potent offensive capabilities which boasts a new weapon in the backfield in the form of talented yet injury prone Aaron Jones.
A Case for the Under: Even with Danielle Hunter recording a team-high 16.5 sacks, the Vikings' defense managed only 43 sacks in total. With Hunter now in Houston after GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah didn’t pony up and allowed him to bolt for greener pastures, the defensive line has a big gap to fill. His replacement, Jonathan Greenard, had 12.5 sacks last season, but replicating that success without a player like Will Anderson drawing attention may prove challenging. Minnesota led the league in blitz rate last season and will likely continue to do so, given their unaddressed secondary issues. The Vikings allowed nearly 235 passing yards (No. 24) and 1.4 passing touchdowns (No. 17) per game. The only notable addition to the pass defense is veteran CB Shaq Griffin, who hasn’t made a significant impact since his 2019 Pro Bowl season with Seattle. Without an improved pass rush, the Vikings may need to win several shootouts to exceed their lowest win total odds since 2014, when they won seven games and finished third in the division. Banking on a draft bust or a rookie to come up big when needed seems risky at best.
2024-25 Minnesota Vikings Schedule
Last season, the Vikings faced six teams that eventually made the playoffs, finishing with a 2-5 record in those matchups, including a sweep at the hands of the Detroit Lions. As it stands right now heading into the opening week of the NFL betting season, Minnesota is scheduled to run up against seven teams currently favored at the online sportsbook to qualify for the postseason. This doesn’t include two matchups with the Chicago Bears, who recently became underdogs to snap their playoff drought. Sharp Football Analysis ranks Minnesota's schedule as the fifth-toughest overall and the hardest within the division. Despite having nine home games, one will be played overseas in London against the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets. The end-of-season schedule is also challenging, with games against the Bears (twice), Cardinals, Falcons, @Seahawks, Packers, and @Lions. Currently, the Vikings are favored in only two of their 17 scheduled games, with ten lined at a field goal or less, indicating many coin flips could be on the horizon. The Vikings' season could swing either way—if they get steady quarterback play and league-average production from the secondary, they could exceed their modest win total. However, given the tough NFC North, I’m betting on them struggling to win a handful of games equating to the Vikings failing to exceed their win total odds four of the last five times.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Minnesota Vikings Under 6.5 Wins
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