With numerous key figures of the New England Patriots dynasty now departed, NFL bettors are fading or largely avoiding the team as the 2024-25 NFL betting season approaches. This caution is warranted, given last year's roster managed only four wins under Bill Belichick's tenure. However, it seems the team is being somewhat underestimated, evidenced by a strong push from NFL futures bettors to bet against Jerod Mayo's new coaching staff from every angle currently on the board at the online sportsbook. Initially set at 5 wins with balanced betting interest, the Patriots' win total has since dropped to a league-low 4.5 games, reflecting widespread skepticism. This skepticism is understandable, as New England transitions under a rookie head coach with significant offseason turnover, including at quarterback, marking one of the largest roster transformations of all 32 teams. While the under dominates NFL bettors’ sentiment right now, it's crucial to delve into the sweeping changes on both sides of the ball to make an informed bet on the Pats' win total as the offseason transitions into the regular season.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
New England Patriots 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Patriots Over 4.5 Wins -146
Patriots Under 4.5 Wins +126
A Case for the Over: It's undoubtedly challenging to find reasons for the Patriots to exceed the expectations set by oddsmakers and the NFL betting market. Last season, they won only four games, falling well short of their 7.5-game win total. The Patriots scored a mere 236 points, tying the Carolina Panthers for the fewest points in the league. The offensive struggle stemmed largely from a clueless quarterback room, with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe combining for 3,392 yards and a 16:21 TD/INT ratio. Fortunately, GM Eliot Wolf addressed this issue by signing veteran Jacoby Brissett and drafting UNC QB Drake Maye with the third pick of the NFL Draft. Brissett provides a veteran presence, allowing Maye time to develop before taking on a starting role. According to current point spreads, the latter part of the schedule features more winnable games, potentially giving Maye a chance to gain confidence and make an impact at the tail end of the season.
A Case for the Under: It's astonishing to see on paper, given New England's dominance since the turn of the century, but the Patriots aren't favored to win any of their games for the 2024-25 season. This is a far cry from the days when Tom Brady was leading the team. With significant roster turnover, including a mix of veterans and rookies, it will take time for everyone to adapt to the new coaching staff's schemes and philosophies. According to current NFL odds, the most winnable game in the first month comes in Week 2 when the Patriots host the Seattle Seahawks as 2.5-point underdogs. The next game where New England is receiving a field goal or less isn't until Week 11! In terms of schedule strength, the Patriots face a tough road, with only the Steelers expected to have a more challenging schedule based on opponent win totals.
2024-25 New England Patriots Schedule
Last season, New England excelled on defense to rank seventh overall. They likely would have allowed fewer than 21.5 points per game (No. 15) if the offense hadn't turned the ball over 29 times (No. 27). The run defense was especially strong, conceding just over 93 yards per game (No. 4). The pass defense was also solid, allowing opponents to average 208+ yards per game (No. 11). Fortunately for the new coaching staff, the defense returns almost fully intact, with key players like David Judon, Christian Barmore, Christian Gonzalez, and Kyle Dugger back in the huddle. This continuity is crucial for a team in transition, given their tough schedule. After starting in Cincinnati, the Patriots face the Seahawks, @Jets, @49ers, Dolphins, and Texans, before battling the Jaguars across the pond in London.
New England's schedule is daunting, ranked as the second toughest among all 32 teams, just behind Pittsburgh. Eight opponents are currently favored to punch tickets to the postseason! I've cashed in by betting under on the Patriots' win total odds for the past two years, so I understand why the betting markets are bearish again this season. However, I like the offseason moves made by upper management and believe the team will improve in the latter half of the schedule, especially with a Week 14 bye offering some respite. While most bettors are hammering the under, I think New England has enough on the current roster to win five games. The best strategy, though, might be to wait and see, then get involved with the Patriots' win total in-season when a likely better number is made available for the taking.
NFL Win Total Prediction: New England Patriots Over 4.5 Wins
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