Despite finishing with an identical 9-8 record as the NFC South champion Buccaneers, the New Orleans Saints fell short on tiebreakers, missing out on the division's sole playoff spot in another lackluster season put forth by the division overall. Their inconsistency also disappointed NFL bettors with the team only covering the closing NFL spread six times. The Saints' decline, once renowned for a potent offense and reliable defense, has been worsened by poor drafts and questionable player acquisitions, often blamed on ineffective coaching and management strategies aimed at cost-cutting rather than long-term success. Despite changes in offensive and defensive coordinator roles this past offseason, the upcoming 2024-25 NFL betting season carries significant weight for the franchise, aiming to reverse their recent playoff misses. To achieve this, New Orleans must surpass their current 7.5-game win total set by online sportsbooks, a feat they have yet to accomplish under Dennis Allen's leadership the past two seasons. Despite facing one of the league's easier schedule strengths last season, the Saints benefit once more with another manageable path to earning a potential playoff bid. But will the Saints bite the hand that feeds them once again? That my friends is what we’ll try to figure out in an attempt to make an informed decision of how to attack the Saints win total odds for the upcoming campaign.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
New Orleans Saints 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Saints Over 7.5 Wins -105
Saints Under 7.5 Wins -115
A Case for the Over: Last season, the Saints excelled in ball security on offense (No. 4) and in creating turnovers on defense (No. 3). Winning the turnover battle goes a long way in coming out on the right side of the scoreboard in any day and age of the NFL. Despite this, turnovers often occurred at critical moments, such as Derek Carr's costly interceptions returned for touchdowns that led to two losses. Whether attributed to underperformance or poor coaching decisions, these incidents highlighted crucial game management flaws by not putting the players in a position to succeed. With new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, known for his commendable work with potent passing attacks over the course of his 11-year NFL coaching career, there's optimism for receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed to flourish. Improving last season's No. 11 ranked passing game could bolster a struggling rushing attack (No. 21), especially if rookie Taliese Fuaga helps fortify the offensive line allowing the remainder of the front wall to take shape. Should the insertion of the rookie pay off immediately, this year’s version of the offense could be the best of what the Dennis Allen regime has brought to the gridiron every passing week. The defense has shouldered the load for quite some time now. It’s high time the other side of the ball held up its end of the bargain!
A Case for the Under: Allen has consistently demonstrated his prowess as one of the top defensive strategists the league has to offer. Since assuming the role of the Saints' defensive coordinator position in 2015, his unit has ranked in the top half of the league in points allowed for seven consecutive seasons, including a top-nine finish over the past four years. However, since taking over as head coach, the defense has slipped to No. 9 and No. 8 in these rankings over the last two seasons. I don’t know what it is, but he either hasn’t surrounded himself with the right guys to help him get the job done effectively, or he’s simply just isn’t cut out to be a head coach. While an above average unit year in and year out under his watch, the defense must take it to the next level if the Saints are to take down a winnable division and inject a much-needed dose of excitement into the city of New Orleans. It’s grown stale in those parts over the last three seasons. To elevate the team and reinvigorate a stagnant fan base, New Orleans needs its defense to reach new heights. Upper management provided upgrades in the forms of DE Chase Young and LB Willie Gay to do so. This is without a doubt a make or break campaign for the embattled head coach. Should the Saints get out to a rough start running up against the toughest part of the schedule, it would hardly be a shock if he were let go in-season.
2024-25 New Orleans Saints Schedule
Another third-place finish is anticipated for the Saints based on the current futures odds to win the NFC South +424at the online sportsbook. That result would be unacceptable for the current coaching staff. Failing to make the playoffs again will likely seal their fate. However, the Saints benefit from what Sharp Football Analysis predicts to be the fifth-easiest schedule overall and second-easiest within the division based on opponent win totals. The most challenging stretch appears to be from weeks two through five, facing the @Cowboys, Eagles, @Falcons, and @Chiefs. After that, the schedule eases, with tougher opponents remaining that include the Browns, Rams, and Packers; two of those games will be held in the comforts of the Caesars Superdome. Despite this, oddsmakers have the Saints lined underdogs in 10 of 17 overall regular season games. While six of those matchups have spreads of three or fewer points, it indicates low expectations for the team form the peeps setting the lines. I’m just not sold on Allen as a head coach and have voiced those opinions publicly ever since he took over the reins in 2022. I faded him last year because of it, and have no problem doing so once again entering the 2024-25 NFL betting season. In-season however, I’ll look to hit the over of the Saints readjusted win total provided they get out to the rough start I envision, especially if Allen is shown the door.
NFL Win Total Prediction: New Orleans Saints Under 7.5 Wins
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