A year after significantly overachieving in the regular season thanks to an exceptionally easy schedule and parlaying it into a playoff win, the New York Giants regressed significantly in the second year of the Brian Daboll era, managing only six wins and failing to surpass the team’s 7.5-game season win total odds. While injuries played a major role in their dramatic decline, several problem areas emerged on both sides of the ball. If not for leading the league in defensive turnovers (31) and maintaining better-than-average ball security, the results could have been even worse. As it stands, GM Joe Schoen had to roll up his sleeves and get to work in the offseason, focusing on improving the roster and making tough decisions to shape the franchise's future. Despite the numerous moves made to bolster the team on both sides of the line of scrimmage, oddsmakers at the online sportsbook don't seem particularly optimistic about the Giants turning their fortunes around quickly. Have they underestimated the GMEN in the NFL futures odds markets? Let’s delve into the offseason developments surrounding the team and use that information to make an informed decision on how to bet the Giants' season win total.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
New York Giants 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Giants Over 6.5 Wins +111
Giants Under 6.5 Wins -131
A Case for the Over: The Giants' defense was a significant weak spot last season. Under Wink Martindale, who blitzed at the second-highest rate in the league, the unit allowed over 361 yards (No. 27) and nearly 24 points (No. 26) per game. Despite the aggressive blitzing, they only managed to produce 34 total sacks. For comparison, the Vikings blitzed at the highest rate in the league and secured 10 more sacks. With Martindale stepping down after two seasons, the Giants brought in former Titans DC Shane Bowen, known for generating pressure primarily through his front four after blitzing at the league’s tenth lowest rate last season. To bolster this approach, GM Joe Schoen traded for standout DE Brian Burns, adding him to an already formidable defensive front featuring Dexter Lawrence II and Kayvon Thibodeaux. This trio combined for 24 sacks last year, suggesting that each player could achieve career-high sack totals working in unison. While the Giants might not have many standout units, their defensive line has the potential to be a dominant force to potentially help the unit rank out well in the turnover department once again.
A Case for the Under: As poor a unit the defense proved to be last season, the offense wasn't much better. The only area where they excelled was in the running game, and their key player, Saquon Barkley, is now with the rival Eagles. Replacing the heart and soul of the team with the battery of Devin Singletary, Eric Gray, and rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. seems like a significant downgrade. The offense's success will ultimately depend on Daniel Jones, who is returning from another season-ending injury, a year after signing a deal that keeps him in New York through 2027. While the front office hoped to draft one of the top three quarterbacks this year, they were unsuccessful in their attempt to move up in the NFL Draft. Instead, they signed Drew Lock as a backup, with Tommy DeVito waiting in the wings. If "Danny Dimes" underperforms or gets injured again, the Giants' offense will struggle for the second consecutive year, even with the addition of first-round draft pick Malik Nabers. More concerning is the performance of the revamped offensive line, which allowed a league-high 85 sacks last season after being plagued by injuries throughout the year. If Andrew Thomas is targeted by the injury bug once again, the line may still struggle to hold its ground, despite the offseason reinforcements brought in.
2024-25 New York Giants Schedule
The Giants enter the 2024-25 NFL betting season with the third toughest schedule in the NFC East and the thirteenth toughest overall, according to Sharp Football Analysis. This is a challenging prospect, considering their six wins last season earned them a third-place schedule within the division. With matchups against the AFC North, NFC South, Minnesota Vikings, @Seattle Seahawks, and Indianapolis Colts, I’m more bullish about the Giants' chances for a bounce-back this year than most pundits. A common theme this offseason has been the piling on of Daniel Jones, with media painting a picture of the team feeling "stuck" with him after two episodes of Hard Knocks. While the franchise couldn’t land a potential franchise QB in the recent draft, NFL bettors have seen Jones perform under Daboll before. With a new weapon in tow like Nabers, his presence could be what the offense needs to finally silence its critics. While I don’t think the Giants are ready to compete with the Eagles for division supremacy, I do like enough pieces upper management has collected in recent years to bank on a bounce-back campaign that potentially has New York fighting for a wild-card spot deep into the season.
NFL Win Total Prediction: New York Giants Over 6.5 Wins
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