The hype surrounding the New York Jets heading into the regular season was at a fever pitch, but it dissipated quickly once Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles just four snaps into the offense’s first possession of the year. With a struggling quarterback room, the Jets still managed seven wins, largely due to one of the league’s best defenses. However, offensive inefficiency eventually took its toll, and the team’s playoff hopes faded for the thirteenth straight year. Determined to address their shortcomings, the front office made significant roster improvements during the offseason. On paper and according to the futures odds at the online sportsbook, it appears the franchise has done enough to end its playoff drought. Should NFL bettors consider betting on the Jets to exceed their season win total? Let's examine both sides of the coin and make an informed decision on how to bet New York’s win total heading into the 2024-25 NFL betting season.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
New York Jets 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Jets Over 9.5 Wins -148
Jets Under 9.5 Wins +128
A Case for the Over: The Jets' offense was an unmitigated disaster last season, with Aaron Rodgers forced out of the equation just four snaps into his New York tenure. Even if Rodgers had played all 17 regular season games, he likely would have come up bruised and battered working behind an offensive line that conceded the third-most sacks in the league (65). GM Joe Douglas prioritized improving his front wall this offseason and his efforts might pay off nicely, with the Jets' O-Line now ranking above league average by most preseason publications. The additions of Tyron Smith, John Simpson, and Morgan Moses were significant, as was drafting Penn State OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu to add depth to the aging unit. Rodgers is reportedly on track for Week 1, and he must be pleased with the moves made to bolster his pass protection.
A Case for the Under: It all comes down to the roster staying healthy. Last season, New York arguably fielded a playoff-worthy team, but ineffective quarterback play held them back. As the defense was forced to shoulder more of the burden due to the offense's struggles, overall execution faltered, leading to another finish in the bottom half of the standings for the eighth consecutive season. Despite making numerous offseason moves to address weaknesses on both sides of the ball, the franchise is relying on a group of veterans to lead them back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Should the experience gained once again be hindered by the injury bug, the Jets will be forced to depend upon its less experienced depth pieces to pull off the feat in arguably the NFL’s toughest division. That would likely prove to be an omen in hopes of outlasting the Bills or Dolphins for division supremacy.
2024-25 New York Jets Schedule
NFL bettors are optimistic about the Jets' prospects for 2024-25, and for good reason. While the AFC East remains one of the league’s more competitive divisions, there isn’t a clear runaway favorite based on current futures odds. Last season's division title came down to the Week 18 clash between the Bills and Dolphins, with Buffalo's 11 wins securing the title. The Jets won seven games with Zach Wilson as the primary quarterback. With Aaron Rodgers back under center, the Jets could gain three to four more wins. If Rodgers and the new additions stay healthy, New York should be in the thick of the division title hunt from the start, beginning with their opener against the reigning NFC champion 49ers. Though they are underdogs against San Francisco, it’s one of only three games where the Jets are expected to be catching points from linemakers throughout the regular season.
The AFC remains highly competitive, and despite a favorable schedule based on opponent win totals per Sharp Football Analysis, the Jets will face challenges. These include four short-week games, a Week 5 trip to London, and a late bye week in November. Nevertheless, the Jets' schedule strength is rated as the fourth-easiest, with matchups against the AFC South, NFC West, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, and Pittsburgh Steelers on the docket. The Week 12 bye is well-timed in my opinion, as it precedes crucial games against the Dolphins (2) and Bills. If key players stay healthy, the Jets are poised to surpass their season win total and potentially compete as the AFC representative in Super Bowl LIX. I expect New York to reward over supporters by logging the most wins of the Robert Saleh era.
NFL Win Total Prediction: New York Jets Over 9.5 Wins
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