He’s done just about everything a NFL player can do in his short career including winning the NFL MVP award twice. So I guess it’s not too surprising to see Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the NFL futures odds favorite for the league’s highest honor. QBs are a virtual lock to win the award with last season’s MVP Lamar Jackson the 11th straight QB to have the honor bestowed upon them. It was Jackson’s second MVP in the last five years and along with Mahomes (2018, 2022) and Aaron Rodgers (2020, 2021) they are the only winners in the last six seasons.
Let’s look at NFL MVP odds and picks.
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If you’re not a QB the odds of winning the award increase dramatically. The top 11 players on the early NFL MVP odds board are al signal callers with Christian McCaffrey at better than 20/1 having the shortest odds of any non-QB. You can’t deny how good Joe Burrow has been when on the field. He led the Bengals to two straight AFC Championship games and a Super Bowl, but missed nearly half of last season with an injury. Another injured player is also set to return with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers recovered from an Achilles injury that cost him all but four snaps of the 2023 campaign.
Two players not even considered for MVP last year made their way up the list. Jordan Love directed Green Bay to the playoffs and an upset win over Dallas in the Wild Card round throwing for 272 yards and three touchdowns. C.J. Stroud will attempt to build off a solid first season that saw him earn Offensive Rookie of the Year. And the Texans added one of the premier receivers in the NFL in Stefon Diggs.
2024/2025 NFL MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes +578
Joe Burrow +902
Jordan Love +1003
CJ Stroud +1005
Dak Prescott +1005
Josh Allen +1305
Lamar Jackson +1456
Brock Purdy +1480
Jared Goff +1500
Jalen Hurts +1807
Aaron Rodgers +1807
Justin Herbert +1807
Christian McCaffrey +2008
Tua Tagovailoa +2711
Anthony Richardson +2911
MVP Favorites
It’s hard not to like Mahomes since he’s been so good over his career. Not only has he won big games with three Super Bowl titles to his name, he’s also been durable starting all but four regular season games and every playoff contest since becoming the team’s starter in 2018. Throwing for nearly 4,200 yards and 27 TDs last season was considered by many to be a down year. It just shows how Mahomes is on another level when playing the most important position on the football field.
Stroud moved up the odds board with his impressive rookie season that helped bring the Texans back to relevance. This is a critical season for him and the club, though, with Houston now the hunted in the AFC South instead of the hunter. Stroud threw only five interceptions in more than 500 pass attempts last year and the addition of Stefon Diggs and the return of Tank Dell should make the passing game more potent.
It’s unfortunate for Josh Allen that his career intersected that of Mahomes. There’s still time for Allen to make up the difference, but last year’s preseason MVP favorite has slipped down the odds board. Allen is more than capable of winning the award and he had another outstanding season in 2023 throwing for more than 4,300 yards and 29 TDs. However, the one hitch in his get along bit him with 18 INTs hurting any realistic chance.
A few players stand out to me in this race with Aaron Rodgers having a good shot at winning a fifth MVP. Staying healthy is the biggest issue as he approaches 40, but essentially having a year off should make him fresh for his real debut season with the Jets. If Rodgers puts up numbers similar to his previous MVP years and helps the Jets end the longest current NFL playoff drought, he’ll have folks groveling over his work. The Jets also tried to make things easier for Rodgers using draft picks to strengthen the offense. A rejuvenated, rested and eager Rodgers in the media capital can certainly turn things in his favor. Now he just needs to stay on the field to win a record tying fifth NFL MVP.
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