The Pittsburgh Steelers surpassed oddsmakers' expectations for the fourth straight season, securing 10 wins and becoming one of three teams from their highly competitive division to make the playoffs. Despite a swift exit in the NFL Wild-Card Round at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, the Steelers' 10-7 record both straight up and against the spread marked yet another non-losing season under Mike Tomlin's leadership in the Steel City. Entering his eighteenth season as head coach, the Steelers face limited expectations once again, according to their current futures odds to win Super Bowl LIX, the AFC, and the AFC North. What more does this team need to do to prove it's not to be underestimated, given their seven playoff appearances over the last decade? Let's examine the offseason moves made by GM Omar Khan to improve the roster in order to make an informed decision on whether to support or fade the Steelers current season win total odds.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Steelers Over 8.5 Wins +112
Steelers Under 8.5 Wins -128
A Case for the Over: Despite the offense's struggles last year, averaging under 305 total yards (No. 25) and fewer than 18 points per game (No. 28), the Steelers still managed to rush for over 118 yards per game (No. 13) and averaged 4.1 yards per carry (No. 16). This was achieved with a retooled O-Line that was constantly reshuffled, and before Troy Fautanu, Zach Frazier, and Mason McCormick was added in the 2024 NFL Draft. Najee Harris surpassed 1,000 rushing yards and scored a career-high eight total touchdowns. Backup Jaylen Warren contributed with 784 rushing yards, averaging a robust 5.3 yards per carry, and caught 61 passes out of the backfield for 370 receiving yards and four touchdowns. The Steelers' rushing attack will be crucial in supporting the offense with Russell Wilson leading the charge and Justin Fields likely called upon in certain scenarios. With a strong running game and solid offensive line, Wilson has historically been one of the league's best quarterbacks, as evidenced by his time in Seattle. If the unit gels quickly, the Steelers could have one of the most improved offenses in the league, leading to more points hitting the board.
A Case for the Under: While schedule strengths can be unpredictable, given that NFL bettors can only speculate on each team’s performance before the season starts, the Steelers appear to have a challenging road ahead. Sharp Football Analysis rates Pittsburgh’s schedule as the toughest of all 32 teams, despite the Steelers finishing third in the competitive AFC North last season. This is a stark contrast to the Cincinnati Bengals, who have the benefit of running up against the league’s sixth-easiest schedule after bringing up the rear of the division standings. All six divisional matchups come in the back half of the schedule following the Week 9 bye, making a strong start of utmost importance. Currently, Pittsburgh is favored to win only three of its first eight games, indicating that oddsmakers are highly skeptical about the Steelers' prospects this year. Moreover, the team is favored to win just four overall games, with the Week 6 tilt against the Raiders in Sin City currently lined a pick 'em. Therefore, linemakers are projecting the Steelers to fall well short of their 8.5-game season win total target at the online sportsbook.
2024-25 Pittsburgh Steelers Schedule
As mentioned earlier, the Steelers face a challenging path to secure another winning season and a fourth playoff appearance in the last five years. Their schedule is deemed the toughest in both the league and the AFC North, featuring matchups against the AFC West, NFC East, Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, and New York Jets. In addition to facing division favorites like the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, the Steelers will also contend with the Falcons, who are favored to win the AFC South, and the Jets, who are expected to challenge the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. This means Pittsburgh will face five teams currently favored to win their divisions when taking into account the two matchups lined up with the Baltimore Ravens. And let’s not forget about the two run-ins with the Cincinnati Bengals! Adding to the difficulty, the Steelers will play nine of their 17 games away from Acrisure Stadium.
Thankfully, the “Terrible Towels” travel extremely well, ensuring full support for the Steelers whenever they play away from the Steel City. This franchise has consistently risen to the occasion under the current coaching staff, proving detractors wrong time and again. Every AFC North team faces numerous question marks heading into the 2024-25 football betting season. Given this context, I believe the Steelers are undervalued in the futures market and don't deserve to be predicted to finish last in the division, as suggested by their +660 odds to win it after placing third the last two seasons. Pittsburgh aggressively reshaped the roster in the offseason, significantly improving its quarterback room and offensive line. With T.J. Watt, Joey Porter Jr., and Minkah Fitzpatrick returning, and Patrick Queen added to the defensive mix, this team is being grossly overlooked. It wouldn't be surprising if they matched or exceeded last year’s 10-win output, despite the tough schedule.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 Wins
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