Despite Pete Carroll’s consistent success over the last 14 seasons, leading the Seattle Seahawks to the playoffs all but four times, recent struggles, including missing the postseason two of the last three years and a dramatic decline in defensive performance, prompted upper management to make a change. The hiring of former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald signals a complete rebuild in the Emerald City. With the franchise not considered serious Super Bowl contenders for the better part of the last decade and ranking among the league’s worst defenses, GM John Schneider appears to have made a solid choice with Macdonald, given the Ravens' defensive success under his brief leadership. The reformation of the defense began with free agency and continued through the NFL Draft, where four of Seattle’s seven picks came on the defensive side of the ball. Noticeable improvement from a defense that allowed over 371 yards per game (No. 30) and was gouged on the ground (No. 31) would significantly boost Seattle's chances of exceeding expectations this season. Can this team bounce back under new leadership and challenge for division supremacy? I believe so, but let’s examine their full offseason body of work to make an informed decision on how to invest in the Seahawks' win total odds heading into the 2024-25 NFL betting season.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Seattle Seahawks 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Seahawks Over 7.5 Wins -154
Seahawks Under 7.5 Wins +134
A Case for the Over: The pieces and pedigree are undoubtedly there for Seattle’s offense to make a dramatic turnaround after a year of underachieving. After revitalizing his career in 2022-23 by throwing for over 4,200 yards and 30 TDs, Geno Smith took a step back last season, working behind an offensive line ravaged by injuries. Due to the front wall’s inability to get the ground game going (No. 28), opposing defenses had a much easier time defending the Seahawks' talented pass-catching corps. The hope is that tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas remain healthy this time around, with the addition of Laken Tomlinson and rookie Christian Haynes adding veteran presence and depth should more injuries occur. If the offensive line can gel early and build chemistry, the Seahawks will be tough to tame with the weapons at their disposal. D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba form an outstanding wide receiver trio, paired with a dynamic 1-2 punch out of the backfield in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. Though this will be new OC Ryan Grubb’s first stint in the NFL, he brings over 20 years of experience working with offenses, having last orchestrated the potent aerial attack for the Washington Huskies. Grubb loves to spread opposing defenses with three wide receiver sets and isn’t afraid to dial up deep shots, which should perfectly complement the talent Seattle’s offense will field each week.
A Case for the Under: The Seahawks' defense was a tough watch last season, allowing over 138 rushing yards per game (No. 31) and 4.6 yards per carry (No. 27). Only the Carolina Panthers surrendered more than the 1.4 rushing touchdowns Seattle gave up on a gamely basis. It's surprising the team managed to win nine games, considering it only forced 19 takeaways (No. 25). The defense excelled on early downs but faltered on crucial third and fourth downs. To return to the postseason, the team needs to find a balance, and it’s uncertain if the new coaching staff can achieve that immediately. Time is needed, but with six of their first nine opponents favored to make the playoffs, the team won't have much of it. The linebacker corps received a boost with the signings of Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker, and many NFL pundits believe Byron Murphy II was the best defensive tackle in the draft. However, it remains to be seen how quickly the new faces and holdovers will adapt to the new schemes and philosophies of the new coaching staff.
2024-25 Seattle Seahawks Schedule
The entire NFC West faces a schedule strength ranked as league average according to the stat heads from Sharp Football Analysis. They will compete against the NFC North, AFC East, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, and @Atlanta Falcons. While each standalone game looks to be of the winnable variety, the matchups against the NFC North and AFC East could prove to be a challenge based on preseason division odds. Despite this, Seattle is only favored to win five of its 17 games according to the current season long NFL betting odds currently listed at the online sportsbook. Although they missed the playoffs last year, the Seahawks still did me a solid by cashing the over of their win total odds after I bit the bullet and laid the -150 chalk to get in at 8.5. Had they not spit the bit at home against the Steelers in Week 17, Seattle would’ve headed back to the second season. Also keep in mind that half of their eight losses were of the one score variety. Even with a new era set to take shape in Seattle, I still believe in the team's talent and the recent reinforcements solidify my stance that they are being sold short. I’ll take the one-game discount and bet the over on their win total once again, even with the -154 vig attached to it!
NFL Win Total Prediction: Seattle Seahawks Over 7.5 Wins
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