Benefiting from playing in one of the league's weakest divisions and facing a schedule where only six of their 14 opponents made the playoffs, the Bucs capitalized on the opportunity to capture their third straight NFC South title and secure a fourth straight trip to the playoffs. Despite an early regular-season home defeat to Philadelphia, Todd Bowles’ team avenged the loss in the wild-card round by thrashing the injury-riddled Eagles 32-9, advancing to the division round where their season ended against the Detroit Lions. The campaign as a whole came off as quite a shock to NFL bettors and oddsmakers, considering the Bucs entered the 2023-24 NFL betting season with a 6-game win total and -500 odds to miss the playoffs. Tampa Bay overachieved significantly due to major turnover luck, a remarkable comeback season from Baker Mayfield, and being the best of a weak division evidenced by winning it the last two seasons by going a combined 17-17 SU and 15-18-1 against the closing NFL odds. But with with former OC Dave Canales now in Carolina and the defense losing key players without bringing on adequate replacements, the outlook is grim. Upper management essentially deciding to run it back with the same team minus a few key contributors leads to a pessimistic win total projection for the upcoming season.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Buccaneers Over 7.5 Wins -156
Buccaneers Under 7.5 Wins +136
A Case for the Over: I'm at a loss for something positive to say about the upcoming season for a Bucs team I see as dead in the water. I can't believe linemakers have set their win total at 7.5, and it's even harder to fathom the NFL betting market buying into this team exceeding that total, given the hefty -156 juice currently supplanted on the over. On the bright side, the offense retains Baker Mayfield, fresh off signing a $1M contract extension to keep him under center for the next three seasons. Mike Evans also got extended and paid in the offseason, while Chris Godwin and dependable TE Cade Otton remain key targets. Rachaad White also emerged as a solid contributor, combining for over 1,500 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns. However, Tampa ranked dead last in rushing, and the offensive line appears to have regressed despite upper management snagging Duke C Graham Barton with their first-round pick. One silver lining is the favorable schedule strength based on the opposition’s current win totals at the online sportsbook. So there’s that…
A Case for the Under: Veterans Shaq Barrett, Devin White, and Carlton Davis are no longer on the Buccaneers' defensive roster. This trio was the lifeblood of the Bucs defense for years, with Barrett and White serving as the unit’s top pass rushers of a season ago. Their absence leaves a significant gap, and nothing substantial has been added to compensate. Without their pass rush expertise and Davis in the secondary, the responsibility falls to a group of unproven players, leaving upper management hoping they can somehow prevent opposing offenses from exploiting their defense every week. Even with all three veterans last season, the Buccaneers managed 48 total sacks (No. 7) but still allowed nearly 250 passing yards per game (No. 29). With sack production likely to decline and no standout additions thrust into the secondary, Tampa’s pass defense could rank as the worst in the league. Coupled with anticipated negative regression in the takeaway department, the Buccaneers could potentially march the worst defense in the NFL onto the gridiron every passing week!
2024-25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Schedule
Given the tone of this breakdown so far, it’s clear I’m extremely bearish on the Buccaneers heading into year two of the Baker Mayfield era. Although he dazzled last year and earned a reward for his efforts, he's struggled to string together back-to-back productive seasons throughout his six-year career. I’m not expecting him to defy the odds this year either. While Sharp Football Analysis rates Tampa’s schedule as the tenth easiest overall, it rates out as the toughest overall within the train wreck of a division otherwise known as the NFC South. Linemakers have the Buccaneers favored to win eight of their 17 games, with all but one of those matchups to occur at Raymond James Stadium, where they play nine times compared to eight on the road. Last season, they had to scratch and claw their way to nine wins to secure division bragging rights via tiebreakers. While nowhere near being bullish on the division overall, I prefer the offseason improvements made by the other teams over the reigning champs. For these reasons and more, I’m all in on the under at that juicy plus-money return every day of the week and twice on Sunday!
NFL Win Total Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 7.5 Wins
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