An enormous undertaking went down in Nashville early in the offseason when it was surprisingly announced that Mike Vrabel's tenure as the Tennessee Titans head coach had ended. This was followed by news that Derrick Henry would no longer be the cornerstone of the offense, as GM Ran Carthon traded him to Baltimore to finish his career. Ushering in a new era at Nissan Stadium is former Cincinnati Bengals OC Brian Callahan, whose offensive expertise is expected to help develop Will Levis into the polished quarterback the franchise so desperately needs. Levis will benefit from a significant influx of free agent talent, transforming the offense into a unit with a pulse compared to last season's lackluster unit. Defensive improvements were also made, but it remains to be seen if they are sufficient for the Titans to compete in a division where most NFL bettors expect the Houston Texans to dominate. Let’s take a deep dive into the complete overhaul to guide us in making an informed decision on betting the Titans' win total for the 2024-25 NFL betting season.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Tennessee Titans 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Titans Over 6.5 Wins +121
Titans Under 6.5 Wins -142
A Case for the Over: The offense was painful to watch last year. It ranked No. 28 overall and scored fewer than 18 points per game (No. 27). Despite Henry's best efforts, the offensive line struggled to open running lanes and was unable to protect the quarterback, allowing 64 sacks #28 over 17 games. To address these issues, upper management selected Alabama OT J.C. Latham with the seventh overall pick in the NFL Draft and signed former Broncos C Lloyd Cushenberry III in free agency. Additionally, they acquired WR Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and RB Tony Pollard, who will likely share backfield duties with Tyjae Spears, who showed promise as Henry's backup last season. These new weapons will give Levis the opportunity to showcase his powerful arm behind what could become one of the NFL's most improved offensive lines under the watch of Bill Callahan. While the defense is expected to improve with new free agents and added depth, the offense will likely be the driving force, providing the team's best hope of securing at least one more win than last season.
A Case for the Under: Though Tennessee brought up the rear of the division standings, it was handed a raw deal by NFL schedule makers who bestowed upon it what Sharp Football Analysis deems to be the league’s sixth toughest schedule when going by opposing team win totals. It also ranks out as the toughest among the four teams that comprise the AFC South. The Titans will face opponents from the AFC East, NFC North, and standalone games against the Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, and Washington Commanders. The first month of the season is especially daunting, starting with a game against the new-look Bears in Week 1, followed by matchups with the Jets, Packers, and a road game against the Dolphins before an early bye in Week 5. After the week off, the Titans face the Colts, @Bills, and @Lions. Both the offense and defense will be rigorously tested early on, making it likely that the team won't hit its stride until the middle of the season giving NFL bettors that hit the low side of the win total some cushion to work with.
2024-25 Tennessee Titans Schedule
As DeMeco Ryans and Shane Steichen demonstrated last season, new head coaches can indeed lead their teams to swift turnarounds. While I don't foresee the Titans pulling off a worst-to-first feat like Houston just pulled off, I have great respect for Brian Callahan and believe Tennessee made a wise choice in appointing him as head coach. The addition of his father to help reshape the offensive line was also a significant move. Over time, this should help all the new offseason additions meet or even exceed expectations. This includes Will Levis, who never truly had the opportunity to showcase his powerful arm due to constant pressure. I fully expect the offense to take a dramatic jump up the overall rankings both running and passing the pigskin, but the defense also shows promise with the additions of L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie who will anchor both starting cornerback positions.
While the start of the Titans' schedule looks formidable on paper, Week 9 onward offers up several winnable matchups. They face the Patriots and Vikings at home in Weeks 9 and 11, travel to Washington in Week 13, and host Jacksonville the following week. The final month includes games against the Bengals at home, and away games against the Colts and Jaguars, before finishing the season at home against the Texans, who might be resting starters. Though currently favored to win only one game all year (New England), there are five other games where the Titans are underdogs by no more than a field goal. Winning a majority of those and pulling off a few upsets, like the shocker logged against the Dolphins last season, would easily surpass the franchise’s lowest season win total odds since 2016 (6). I truly believe this team is being underestimated by the NFL futures betting market and will make enough noise that I'm personally considering betting an alternate over to add a little more bang for the buck.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Tennessee Titans Over 6.5 Wins
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