Based on early results, the Kansas City Chiefs made the right decision trading Alex Smith and handing the offense to Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs lit up the scoreboard again with Mahomes the catalyst in a victory over the Steelers. Mahomes tossed six scoring passes and is the first player with 10 touchdown tosses through two games. The Chiefs have scored 80 points through their first two outings and have a date with Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers in their Week 3 home opener.
This contest in Week 3 of the regular season will go down Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Francisco 49ers +6
Kansas City Chiefs -6
Over/Under 54.5
Odds Analysis
It looks as though it may take some time for the line to settle on this one. We saw a quick spike just moments after the spread hit the board at Chiefs -4. With Kansas City getting a majority of play the line climbed to -6. It’s hard not to back KC after a pair of impressive road wins and covers. The Chiefs are also getting respect on the over/under with the total opening at a whopping 54.5.
Injury Report
Jaquiski Tartt – The Niners lost their starting safety to a shoulder injury and the pass defense suffered. One week after tossing four interceptions, Detroit’s Matthew Stafford threw for 347 yards and nearly brought the Lions back from a 30-13 deficit with a pair of fourth quarter touchdown passes. Stafford threw 53 passes and wasn’t picked off.
Eric Berry – Dealing with their own issues in the secondary, the Chiefs are hopeful Eric Berry is close to returning. Berry missed his second straight game with a heel injury and the secondary hasn’t risen to the occasion in his absence. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 452 yards and three touchdowns last weekend and the Chiefs have surrendered 860 yards through the air in two games. Part of that can be attributed to opponents playing catch up, but still that’s a lot of yards.
Player to Watch
There are plenty of weapons on Kansas City’s offense and Mahomes has utilized all of them. Proving that the opener was just the beginning, Mahomes was even better against the Steelers, throwing for 326 yards and six touchdowns without an interception. Any issues about his accuracy were also put to rest. After completing 55.6 percent against the Chargers in Week 1, Mahomes was 23 of 28 in Pittsburgh.
Jimmy Garoppolo has received all the attention, and a large contract extension, but Mahomes is doing his talking on the field. Through two games he’s completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 582 yards with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. His six TD throws against the Steelers are the most for Chiefs quarterback since joining the NFL. After dropping 38 on the Chargers in Week 1, the Chiefs scored 42 against the Steelers and lead the NFL with an average of 40 points per game. That kind of productivity won’t continue, but it’s fun while it lasts.
Key Stat
After converting just 1 of 4 red zone chances in their opener, the Niners were a little better last week, but the numbers are still concerning. Frisco hit paydirt twice in five red zone trips against the Lions and the game wouldn’t have been as close if they didn’t settle for three field goals on the other drives. The Niners have at least come away with points on eight of their nine red zone trips this season.
Free ATS Pick
Reuben Foster is expected back after serving his two-game suspension, and that should help the Niners defense. They’ll need all the help they can get slowing down Mahomes and his weapons. The Chiefs are having their issues defensively as well and this one has the makings of being an over bettors dream, but the total was set accordingly after KC easily cashed the over in its first two games.
Mahomes and the Chiefs can’t continue at this record-setting pace and they’ll slow down enough to fall below the total. But they have a balanced attack and can get you on special teams as well. The Niners just don’t have the firepower to beat KC and the home team will cover with the under being a smart play as well.
NFL Betting Odds: Chiefs 31, 49ers 20
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