The Jimmy Garoppolo era gets under way for real on Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Minnesota Vikings in the Week 1 opener. Garoppolo led the Niners to five straight wins to close out last season and he’s undefeated in his career as a starter, giving the faithful hope that the Niners may actually compete for something other than last place. However, this will be the first time he enters a season No. 1 on the depth chart after serving as Tom Brady’s backup, and the stakes are a little higher.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, September 9, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET at US Bank Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Francisco 49ers +6
Minnesota Vikings -6
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
Minnesota was the best against the spread last season going 11-5, and they bolstered that record with a 6-2 ATS mark at home. The early line for this one had the Vikings at +4.5 but has since climbed to +6 with nearly 70 percent of the betting public backing the home team. The Niners might be a better team, but they have yet to prove anything. The total has remained steady since hitting the board, but it could see a shift with the Niners missing their top running back.
Injury Report
Jerick McKinnon – In what could be an ominous sign, the Niners lost their projected No. 1 running back when McKinnon went down with a knee injury in practice this week. Signed as a free agent from the Vikings this offseason, McKinnon was seen as a perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense and was to be the focal point. It’s unclear who will assume the role among a group that includes Matt Breida, Alfred Morris and Raheem Mostert.
Player to Watch
The QB always gets the most attention and all eyes will be on Kirk Cousins as he begins a new chapter in his career. The Vikings fell one game short of reaching the Super Bowl last season, and with their championship window still wide open, they went for what they consider the missing piece. Case Keenum was solid last year, but he wasn’t in the plans with Cousins an available free agent.
Cousins threw for over 4,000 yards and at least 25 touchdowns in each of the last three seasons with Washington. And he also proved to be durable by starting every game over that span. The Vikings desperately need some stability at the position after dealing with a carousel of quarterbacks over the past few seasons. Cousins also has an impressive group of skill players around him in receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, tight end Kyle Rudolph and backs Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray.
Key Stat
Mike Zimmer has put together one of the most dominant defenses during his time with the Vikings and they were the best in the NFL in limiting points last season. The Vikings allowed only 15.8 points per game in 2017 and they’ve given up fewer than 20 points per contest in each of the three previous seasons.
Led by a ferocious front with two active edge rushers in Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, the Vikings were second last year in passing yards and rushing yards allowed. As a result they allowed a league-low 276 total yards per game. The Vikings have a balance on that side of the football that every team strives to achieve and the group returns virtually intact. One matchup the Vikings will try to exploit is on the right side of the line where the Niners employ rookie tackle Matt McGlinchey.
Free ATS Pick
I’m not buying into the Niners hype and the loss of McKinnon hurts what they can do offensively. Garoppolo has yet to enter a season as a starter, and even though he won five games last year, he took over when the team was 1-10 and out of the race. The whole situation is going to be much different for Jimmy G now.
The Vikings came close last season to reaching their first Super Bowl since the 1976 season and how it ended is certainly a motivating factor. Their stout defense was shredded by Philadelphia in the NFC Championship and wasn’t much better in a win over the Saints in the divisional round. The addition of Cousins and the return of Cook will make them more dangerous offensively, leaving less for the D to accomplish. I like the Vikings and I think they handle the Niners in the opener with a barrage of points.
NFL Betting Odds: Minnesota 31, San Francisco 17
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