The offseason proved to be very lucrative for Green Bay Packers’ running back Aaron Jones. Green Bay signed Jones to a four-year deal worth $48 million to keep the young, talented runner in green and gold for the near future. The deal included a $13 million signing bonus that is more than twice as much as he made in the first four years of his rookie contract as a fifth-round pick out of UTEP. Jones will now look to prove he is worth the money and then some for the Packers.
Aaron Jones Regular Season Rushing Yards
Over 1050.5 -112
Under 1050.5 -112
Aaron Jones averaged 5.5 YPC in three of his first four seasons in the NFL. That has made him one of the most efficient running backs in the league, and his workload has subsequently increased with each year. Jones surpassed 1,000 yards for the first time in 2019, running for 1,084 yards and 16 touchdowns, and he was even better in 2020 with 1,104 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. His rushing total has increased from year to year since entering the NFL, so that bodes well for the over.
The addition of a 17th game also should help the over. Green Bay’s added game is against Kansas City this year, and the Chiefs don’t have a great run defense. Additionally, two games against lowly Detroit will certainly help Jones get over the total.
There are a couple reasons to think the under might be the play though. First, the offensive line is not very good aside from standout left tackle David Bakhtiari. Bakhtiari has been an All-Pro for five straight seasons, but center Josh Myers is a rookie, and guard Lucas Patrick and tackle Billy Turner are decent at best. Elgton Jenkins did make his first Pro Bowl last season though, and his continued improvement will really help the interior line.
Injuries are the other thing to keep in mind. Jones has missed at least two games in three of his four seasons in the NFL. He has never suffered a serious injury that has caused him to miss considerable time, but an absence of a few games would certainly hurt for this prop.
Running backs are far more likely to be injured than receivers or quarterbacks, so that’s a permanent caveat emptor when betting totals involving them. Jones is less likely to be injured than many running backs though as he has just 651 carries through four seasons. That has left a lot of the tread on the tires.
Aaron Jones Regular Season Rushing and Receiving Touchdowns
Over 11.5 -115
Under 11.5 -115
As a rookie in 2017, Jones didn’t come close to this number. However, he had nine touchdowns on just 159 touches during the 2018 season. He had his most successful season in terms of end zone celebrations in 2019 when he had 19 total touchdowns, but he could only muster 11 touchdowns with the Packers in 2020.
A.J. Dillon will take some carries away from Jones. Dillon was a second round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, and he was very productive at Boston College. However, he is a much different type of runner than Jones and will not play a real role in the passing game. Bettors that take the over will have to worry about Dillon vulturing goal line touchdowns though due to his frame.
This is a deep receiving corps. However, Green Bay has made a move to de-emphasize the passing game since parting ways with Mike McCarthy. Since Aaron Rodgers is in the last year of his deal, the Packers might move further away from him to prepare for the future.
Will Aaron Jones Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards?
Yes +2200
Only a handful of running backs have the potential to lead the league in yards, and Aaron Jones is not one of them. While Jones is one of the most effective running backs in the league, he won’t have the workload needed to hang with guys like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, or Dalvin Cook. Additionally, the inability to stay on the field will hurt Jones.
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