Aaron Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the course of his professional career. Though he doesn’t normally see eye to eye with whichever coaching staff overlooks the team, you can’t argue with the finished product on the field. However, the former Super Bowl champion and Pro Bowler has seen his production levels diminish over the last handful of seasons and that has everything to do with debilitating injuries incurred as well as getting longer in the tooth. Though Rodgers played a full 16-game schedule a season ago, he simply wasn’t the same after getting injured in the season opener against the Chicago Bears. Even so, his prop offerings at online sportsbooks still rank out amongst the best the league has to offer at the quarterback position. Should NFL bettors just write last season off as an anomaly or fade the future Hall of Famer’s regular season props in 2019-20?
Total Passing Yards: 4250.5
Total Passing TD: 32.5
The betting markets look to be down on Aaron Rodgers in respect to the amount of passing yards and touchdowns he ends up throwing for. A decent amount of vig is currently attached to the under of his passing yards prop (-129), while even heavier -155 juice is supplanted firmly onto the under of his passing touchdown prop. His overall production is way down from his glory days when he routinely threw for 4000+ yards and 30+ touchdowns. Just last season, he went on to carve opposing defenses up for 4,442 yards but only capped the production off with 25 touchdown passes. In just seven played games back in 2017, Rodgers threw for 1,675 yards and a whopping 16 touchdown passes! If we extrapolate those numbers over the course of a full season, we’re only talking about 3,800+ passing yards and around 37 touchdown passes. So, the touchdowns are there but the passing yards are trending downwards. Save for Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham, Green Bay’s pass catching corps is largely inexperienced and untested which will ultimately make it tough for Rodgers to surpass both imposts.
Seasonal Scenario
The Packers are considered potential candidates to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl evidenced by their 10-1 return to win the conference and 24-1 return to win it all. Matt LaFleur is faced with tackling a 9.5-game season win total and is lined slightly in back of the Bears and Vikings on the futures odds to win the NFC North. Both Minnesota and Chicago possess two of the more dominant defenses in the game, and Rodgers will be forced to run up against each twice. Though a new coaching staff is in place, expectations are that Green Bay once again gets back in the thick of the playoff race. However, for the first time in the Rodgers era, it might be the defense that allows for that to occur with the offense an unknown and numerous changes for the better made to overhaul Mike Pettine’s stop unit.
Green Bay Packers Football Schedule
Week 1: Packers at Bears, Thursday, September 5, 8:20 p.m. ET - NBC
Week 2: Vikings at Packers, Sunday, September 15, 1 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 3: Broncos at Packers, Sunday, September 22, 1 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 4: Eagles at Packers, Thursday, September 26, 8:20 p.m. ET – NFL NETWORK
Week 5: Packers at Cowboys, Sunday, October 6, 4:25 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 6: Lions at Packers, Monday, October 14, 8:15 p.m. ET - ESPN
Week 7: Raiders at Packers, Sunday, October 20, 1 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 8: Packers at Chiefs, Sunday, October 27, 8:20 p.m. ET - NBC
Week 9: Packers at Chargers, Sunday, November 3, 4:25 p.m. ET - CBS
Week 10: Panthers at Packers, Sunday, November 10, 1 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 11: Bye Week
Week 12: Packers at 49ers, Sunday, November 24, 4:25 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 13: Packers at Giants, Sunday, December 1, 1 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 14: Redskins at Packers, Sunday, December 8, 1 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 15: Bears at Packers, Sunday, December 15, 1 p.m. ET - FOX
Week 16: Packers at Vikings, Monday, December 23, 8:15 p.m. ET - ESPN
Week 17: Packers at Lions, Sunday, December 29, 1 p.m. ET – FOX
Schedule Breakdown
The schedule isn’t fun. Overall, it’s ranked No. 25 in terms of difficulty with No. 32 being the hardest and No. 1 the easiest. The season kicks off under the Thursday Night Football lights against the Chicago Bears who held Rodgers to an average of 280 passing yards and 1.5 touchdown passes in last year’s pair of meetings. From there, Rodgers will then take on the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. Only the Eagles possess a pass defense not ranked amongst the best in the league heading into the regular season. Those that fade the betting markets on both of Rodger’s season-long props or have him on their fantasy football rosters might not be very happy through Week 5. The schedule does however open up a bit through the Week 11 bye with the toughest pass defense faced coming in the form of the Los Angeles Chargers. But then it gets extremely tough once again to close out the regular season.
The Bets
I need to see more from the Packers new offense before I get on board Rodgers morphing back into the quarterback that was routinely the first quarterback taken off the board in fantasy football drafts.
That said, he’s surpassed his current passing yards impost three of the last four seasons when getting at least 16 games under his belt; I expect him to make it four in five once 2019-20 comes to a close. With Aaron Jones and the ground attack figuring to be more of a factor under the new coaching staff and Adams the only bonafide touchdown scorer in the passing game, I don’t envision Rodgers throwing 33 or more touchdown passes this season; hit the under there!
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