Never one to challenge for the rushing title with two full seasons now under his belt, oddsmakers at online sportsbooks are expecting Alvin Kamara to blow past his career high-rushing mark when he takes to the gridiron for the 2019-20 regular season. Having never rushed for more than 885 yards in a single season, Kamara is now being asked to accrue his first 1000+ yard rushing campaign in order to cash over tickets for those buying into him as being the bell cow back for the New Orleans Saints this season. While Mark Ingram is no longer in the Saints backfield, upper management went out and signed Latavius Murray as his replacement. With that, it’s highly likely Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael elect to put forth a dual-attack once again. Should that happen, it’s going to take a multitude of big gainers to allow for him to surpass the current impost through a 16-game regular season slate.
Total Rushing Yards: 1000.5
Offensive Philosophy
Since Kamara became a member of the Saints’ backfield, the offense has gone on to rank no worse than No. 6 in average rushing yards per game. New Orleans ranked No. 5 a season ago with it rushing for a total of 2,070 yards and an average of 129.4 yards per game. Only the Bills, Ravens, Titans and Seahawks ran the ball at a higher percentage with the Saints looking to the ground on nearly 46 percent of their executed plays from scrimmage. Kamara got the lion’s share of the carries in getting 194 to Ingram’s 138. Each went on to average at least 4.6 yards per carry running behind one of the better run-blocking offensive lines the league has to offer.
That once again looks to be the case this upcoming season with bookend tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk back in the mix, but there are questions on the interior with Pro Bowl center Max Unger most recently hanging up his cleats. Should his rookie replacement – Erik McCoy – prove to be capable, the Saints rushing attack will once again be one of the best unit’s to take the field every passing Sunday. If not, Kamara will have an incredibly tough time living up to the high expectations placed upon him entering the regular season.
New Orleans Saints Football Schedule
Week 1: Texans
Week 2: @Rams
Week 3: @Seahawks
Week 4: Cowboys
Week 5: Buccaneers
Week 6: @Jaguars
Week 7: @ Bears
Week 8: Cardinals
Week 9: Bye Week
Week 10: Falcons
Week 11: @Buccaneers
Week 12: Panthers
Week 13: @Falcons
Week 14: 49ers
Week 15: Colts
Week 16: @Titans
Week 17: @Panthers
Schedule Breakdown
While there are a number of worrisome spots on the Saints 2019 schedule, there’s plenty of favorable spots to cancel them out. The Panthers possessed the best run defense of the Saints’ three NFC South opponents last season, so that Week 17 tilt at Carolina could prove to be a tough one for all Saints ball carriers. However, the four total matchups against the Buccaneers and Falcons could prove fruitful with each ranked amongst the worst defenses in the league a season ago. You do however have to figure Atlanta will be a bit more competitive this time around with all the major playmakers back from injury.
Matchups against Arizona and San Francisco also look favorable, but the run-ins with Dallas and Chicago cancel them out. All in all, it’s going to be a very challenging season for Saints running backs with its overall schedule ranked No. 24 in terms of strength with No. 32 being the absolute toughest. Should Kamara be able to defy the odds on a number of levels, he will have earned it!
The Bet
Word out of the bayou is that Kamara is going to shoulder the bulk of the rushing load entering his third season as one of the premiere running backs in the NFL. Ingram poached 138 carries from him a season ago. If only 50 percent of those carries end up going to No. 41 and he at the very least matches his 4.6 yard per carry average of a season ago, it will equate to just north of another 317 yards. Add that to his seasonal output from last season, and it would surpass his 1000.5 rushing yardage prop at top rated sportsbooks by over 200 yards! As good a receiver Kamara has also proven to be over the course of his two full seasons in the league, it might be a bit rich to expect a forecast like that.
However, we’re breaking down one of the five best running backs in the league that now gets the benefit of being the primary ball carrier on one of the league’s more explosive and efficient offenses. Anything Saquon Barkley can do, Kamara can just as likely do if not take it to an even higher level with a much better offense surrounding him. With that, it makes absolutely no sense to me as to why Saquon’s rushing yards prop checks in at 1300.5 and Kamara’s is 300 yards less. I truly feel linemakers are underestimating what Kamara has in store for 2019-20 with the Saints window of opportunity slowly closing after suffering a pair of gut-wrenching playoff defeats the last two seasons.
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