The shocking announcement by Andrew Luck that he was retiring sent online sportsbooks scrambling on Saturday night to move the odds on the Colts and to move the odds on other AFC South teams. The Super Bowl odds on the Colts moved dramatically, as before the injury, the Colts were listed at about 10-1 to win the Super Bowl, but now the Colts are listed with odds of 46-1 at BookMaker. The win total on the Colts moved from 9.5 to 7.5 and the Colts are now the longshot to win the AFC South. Has everyone overreacted and are the Colts now a bargain? Let’s look at where the Colts’ odds were before Andrew Luck retired and where they are now.
Colts Odds Before Andrew Luck Retirement
Super Bowl 10-1
AFC South -125
Win Total 9.5
Colts Odds After Andrew Luck Retirement
Super Bowl 46-1
AFC South +390
Win Total 7.5
Luck was the 2018 NFL Comeback Player of the Year and there is no question he was a top NFL quarterback. Is he worth two wins for the season? Some analysts believe that he is, as some projections have the Colts win total going from just over nine to just under seven. Some projections have the Colts chances of making the playoffs falling from 59% to about 17%. The one thing that helps Indianapolis is that they play in perhaps the weakest division in the NFL, the AFC South.
Week 1 Line Move
The Colts visit the Chargers in Week 1 and before the Luck injury the Colts were a 3-point underdog. The Colts are now getting a touchdown and it would not be surprising to see the line go to 7.5 before kickoff. We’ll ask the question again, has everyone overreacted to the Luck injury? The Colts were considered a darkhorse Super Bowl contender with Luck. Are they suddenly going to be a non-playoff team without him?
Colts with Brissett
The Colts have been in this situation before, as Luck sat out the 2017 season and Jacoby Brissett was the starting quarterback. The Colts went 4-12 SU and 8-8 ATS, with 10 games going under the total and six going over. It should be noted, however, that the Colts have a much better team in 2019 than they did two years ago. The offensive line is much better and the Colts have far more offensive weapons around Brissett including T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack and Devin Funchess.
Current AFC South Odds
Houston Texans +190
Jacksonville Jaguars +214
Tennessee Titans +375
Indianapolis Colts +390
The odds on the Colts went up, as the Colts were the odds-on favorite before the Luck injury to win the AFC South, while the odds on the other three teams went down. The Texans are now a slight favorite to win the division, while the Jaguars are a close second choice. The Titans and Colts are the two longshots. Based on how the Titans have looked in the preseason and because of their quarterback situation, the Titans probably should be listed at even higher odds. The Colts, even without Luck, look to have more value than the Titans.
The two teams that should benefit the most from the Colts not having Luck are the Texans and Jaguars. The Texans are now projected as the favorite to win the division and their chances of making the playoffs went from below 50% to above 50%. The Jaguars chances went from 21% to 28%. The odds on the Titans also moved, but as I said earlier, everyone should pump the breaks on the Titans, as they have serious question marks on offense.
Some bettors wasted no time in betting against the Colts once news of Luck’s retirement came out on Saturday night. Sportsbooks that left the odds up got hammered on bettors taking the Indianapolis win total under and bettors also took shots with the Texans and Jaguars to win the AFC South.
Check out the latest Indianapolis Colts odds at BookMaker.eu.
