With both teams having questions regarding their starting quarterback ahead of their Week 12 Sunday Night Football matchup, it might be more interesting to bet on who plays. The critical AFC North contest between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens could be a battle of backups. With Lamar Jackson a late scratch last week with an illness, Baltimore rallied behind Tyler Huntley to beat Chicago 16-13 and maintain a slim lead in the division. There’s a chance Jackson plays on Sunday, and there’s a chance he doesn’t. The Browns are hoping Baker Mayfield is healthier than he was on Sunday. Nursing an assortment of ailments, Mayfield played the entire game, a 13-10 win over Detroit, but struggled to move the football.
This regular season Week 12 matchup will take place on Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 8:20 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cleveland Browns +3.5
Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Total 46
Odds Analysis
Depending on how things shape up prior to kickoff we’re sure to see some movement on the betting line. Some shops have yet to post a line as they wait for clarity while others had the Ravens between -4 and -5. There has been some action on the Browns with the consensus now putting Baltimore as a 3.5-point favorite. Both teams had a hard time scoring last week and with the possibility of Jackson missing another game and Mayfield’s injury issues, the betting public has supported the UNDER driving the total down to 46 after hitting the board at 48. Again, both numbers are fluid and could change depending on the status of the quarterbacks. Stay tuned.
Key Injury
We could talk about both QBs in this section, but I’m going with just one and that’s Jackson. Why? Well, the Ravens are just a different team when the former MVP is on the field. I’ll give him a pass on that hiccup against the Dolphins a few weeks ago and instead talk about his exploits before that. And LJ is just a bigger part of his team’s offense than Mayfield is to the Browns. We know Jackson can run the football. He leads the team with 639 rushing yards and went over 1,000 in each of the previous two campaigns. The knock on him, valid or not, was in the passing game. But he’s thrown for 2,447 yards completing 64.4 percent of his throws.
While the aerial attack has been good, the Ravens have always had an outstanding ground game and it’s been lethal with Jackson in the backfield. They led the NFL in rushing the last two seasons and were the second-best in 2018. That’s all been accomplished with Jackson on the club. Huntley did a nice job last week with 219 passing yards and an additional 40 yards on seven rush attempts. He put together a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minutes but the offense was sluggish. Jackson had two big games last season leading the Ravens to a season sweep of the Browns. He was 20 of 25 for 275 and three touchdowns in a 38-6 home win and he ran for 124 yards and two touchdowns in a memorable 47-42 road triumph.
Key Stat
While the league has become more pass-happy over the years, it still pays to be able to consistently and effectively run the football. And nobody does that better than the Browns, who lead the NFL with nearly 157 yards per game on the ground. Leading rusher Nick Chubb was sequestered a few weeks ago thanks to COVID, but he returned with a vengeance churning out 130 yards against the Lions. With Mayfield hurting, Chubb took over on the final drive last week amassing 36 yards and picking up a pair of first downs to help the Browns kill the final 2:29 and secure the victory. That’s the benefit of having a strong running game. And there’s a chance Kareem Hunt returns to the lineup giving Cleveland a number of options.
Free ATS Pick
As of now both Jackson and Mayfield are in line to play, and based on that I have to give the edge to the Ravens. Jackson presents so many challenges for a defense and we saw how he tore the Browns apart last season. And Baltimore has shown an uncanny knack to win close games. The win over Chicago was their fifth straight by six or fewer points.
NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 / UNDER 46
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