The Baltimore Ravens return home from a humbling two-game road trip that saw John Harbaugh’s troops drop a pair on the moneyline at online sportsbooks against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns in an excruciating fashion. In doing so, the team fell to the No. 4 seed in the AFC which has them potentially hosting a Wild Card matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers; a team they skunked 34-6 already back in Week 6. That all depends on whether the Ravens can continue winning games with the injury bug seemingly taking huge bites out of the roster all season long. As for the Green Bay Packers, they just got catapulted into the NFC’s catbird seat once the Arizona Cardinals failed to hold serve against the NFC West rival Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. Matt LaFleur’s squad enters Week 15 owners of a 10-3 record that’s seen them go a moneymaking 11-2 ATS. But is this team truly as good as the record indicates? The betting market has certainly given it the seal of the approval evidenced by the rate at which it’s voluntarily laid the points for this road tilt. I’m not buying it though; not one bit!
Watch this regular season Week 15 matchup on Sunday, December 19, 2021, at 4:25 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium on FOX.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Green Bay Packers -5
Baltimore Ravens +5
Total 43.5
Odds Analysis
The look-ahead lines had the visiting Packers laying 2-points and the total set at 45.5. This was before Lamar Jackson was bounced early on from last week’s game in Cleveland. With 80 percent of the bets and a whopping 92 percent of the money going the way of the Cheeseheads, linemakers have bumped the number to beat up to -5 with even juice supplanted on both sides of the impost. All three of Green Bay’s losses have come on the road against the Saints, Chiefs and Vikings. Baltimore has won five of six as hosts (3-3 ATS), and won outright the lone time it caught points in defeating Kansas City 36-35 way back in Week 2. With the under a combined 11-15 for these teams to date, it comes with little surprise to see the O/U down a couple points to 43.5. That being said; Green Bay has cashed over tickets in three straight while Baltimore has played to high scorers in four of its six home games with an average of 52.7 points scored.
Player Prop Targets
So just how good is the Packers’ passing attack? On paper, it clocks in at No. 9 with fewer than 254 yards accrued per game. It’s averaged a whopping 9.0 yards per pass and 3.2 touchdowns over the last three games against the bottom feeding pass defenses of the Bears, Rams and Vikings. Baltimore’s pass defense is not good. In fact, it will be the worst Aaron Rodgers will have run up against this season with it allowing over 266 yards per game (No. 31) and 7.4 yards per pass attempt (No. 30). That being said, the Packers scoring output on the road has understandably not been nearly as good as it’s been at home. I still expect NFL bettors to line up in droves to hit the over of Rodgers’ passing prop coming off a huge showing against the Bears. Even with its best cover man down last week, Baltimore held its own keeping Baker Mayfield under 200 total passing yards and shut Cleveland out in the second half. With that, I’m going to fade the noise and take a stab on the under once I believe the number has hit its peak.
Free ATS Pick
Sorry, but I’m not a believer in the 2021-22 Packers. And no it has nothing to do with being a diehard Chicago Bears fan. My favorite team is the one that wins me money, and I’m of the belief the betting market has absurdly pushed the point spread to an area I want to take advantage of. Baltimore has thrived in the underdog role for a while now. It enters this tilt having cashed point spread tickets each of the last eight times it caught points from linemakers. It also won six of those games outright! I simply don’t care who will or won’t be suiting up for the Ravens on Sunday, Harbaugh will find a way. Green Bay is as overrated as it gets! The defense doesn’t impress me and I’m interested to see how Rodgers performs with Baltimore putting the clamps on his running backs. Gimme the points in a game I expect to be a defensive minded slobber knocker right from the opening kick.
NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Packers 17
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