When the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens meet at the end of the season there’s usually something on the line. Both teams have a slim chance of reaching the playoffs otherwise this matchup is purely for show. Unless the planets miraculously align for one club, this will be the first time since 2013 that both miss the postseason. It took an epic collapse by the Ravens to leave them in this position. At the end of November they were 8-3 and fighting for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Five losses later they’re all but done. The skid started with a 20-19 loss to the Steelers, one of three one-point setbacks in the losing streak. Still, the Ravens are positioned as a 5.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line.
This regular season Week 18 matchup will take place on Sunday, January 9, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at MT Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD and will be televised on CBS.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5
Baltimore Ravens -5.5
Total 41.5
Odds Analysis
The line is still fluid while we wait on news of Lamar Jackson. I’ll go further in depth in the next section, but the Ravens suffered without the former MVP. Baltimore was favored on the opening with the spread as high as 7-points, which seemed odd considering the direction of the teams. I guess oddsmakers either think or know that Jackson will play. While there are no moral victories in the NFL, the Ravens have been close. Three of their losses in the current five-game skid have been by one point, including last week’s 20-19 decision to the Rams. The Ravens are 3-1 ATS in their last four games catching points every time. Pittsburgh bounced back from a horrendous showing at KC to knock the Browns out of the playoffs and keep their own chances alive with a 26-14 payout victory. The emotion of Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game helped them as a 1-point dog. With this being perhaps Big Ben’s final game could the emotion return?
Key Injury
It looks as though the injuries coupled with COVID finally caught up with the Ravens. They were going along fine until about six weeks ago when they dropped a game to the Steelers. It didn’t seem like a big deal at the time, but that started the losing streak. The following week Jackson sustained an injury in a 24-22 loss to the Browns and he hasn’t played since. While they’ve been close with Tyler Huntley behind center they still haven’t won and that’s the bottom line. Hell, even Huntley missed a game due to COVID and the Ravens were pounded by the Bengals, 41-21.
Now, I don’t know if the Ravens win those games with Jackson out there, but they sure have a better chance. One of the most dynamic threats in the game, LJ was having a fine season leading the team in rushing while throwing for nearly 3,000 yards before his injury. If the ankle is so messed up will John Harbaugh put the franchise player at risk? It’s a development worth paying attention to especially if you plan to throw down on this game.
Player to Watch
This would be a perfect spot to mention Roethlisberger since this is likely the final game of his NFL career. We saw the outpouring of emotion last week in what was perhaps his final home game. The Steelers rallied around Big Ben for a 26-14 victory. And while this is a great storyline, the player the Ravens need to watch out for is T.J. Watt. The NFL’s sack leader after getting four of Pittsburgh’s nine sacks last week, Watt is one sack away from tying the league record of 22 sacks established back in 2001. That outburst against the Browns also vaulted the Steelers to the top of the NFL’s sack chart with 52, five more than the second-place team. And it doesn’t matter who the quarterback is, the Steelers are relentless with the pass rush. Watt registered 3.5 of Baltimore’s seven sacks on Jackson when the clubs met in Week 13.
Free ATS Pick
Even if Jackson plays I’m not sure the Ravens can overcome the damage that’s been done over the last several weeks. One thing I do know is that they will compete, they always do. And we typically see low scoring games between these division rivals. While the defenses haven’t been as strong as in years past, the offenses have taken a slumber as well, which has me backing the UNDER. This should be another close game and in that case I’m backing the points.
NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 / UNDER 41.5
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