The Kansas City Chiefs continued their quest for a record third straight Super Bowl title and advanced to the AFC Championship for a seventh consecutive season by beating Houston in the divisional round. And they get a chance to exact some revenge on the team that ended their season opening 10-game winning streak when they host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. The game will air on CBS with kickoff scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium. The championship window is still open in Buffalo but getting past the Chiefs is the biggest hurdle. The teams meet for the fourth time in the last five postseasons with KC winning the previous three. The Bitcoin Sportsbook has the Chiefs as a slim 1.5-point favorite on the early NFL betting line.
NFL Betting Lines
AFC Championship Betting Lines
Buffalo Bills +1.5 / ML + 107
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 / ML -123
Over / Under 47.5
The Chiefs have been Josh Allen’s kryptonite when it comes to the playoffs beating the Bills the last three times the clubs met in the postseason. It started during the 2020 season when the Chiefs got three TD passes from Patrick Mahomes to win the AFC Championship game 38-24. One year later in an epic overtime classic, the Chiefs tied the divisional round game with a late field goal and won in overtime, crushing Buffalo’s hopes after Allen’s go-ahead scoring pass with only 13 seconds left in the fourth. It was supposed to be different last year with the teams playing in western New York. It wasn’t. KC won again in the divisional round, 27-24.
A lot has been made of their playoff misfortune against Mahomes and the Chiefs, but the Bills have won the last four regular season meetings covering the spread and proved they can slay the beast. Allen threw for 262 yards and a TD with an additional 55 yards and a score on 12 rush attempts in the Bills’ 30-21 victory in Week 11. Now the Bills have to do it in the playoffs.
After crushing Denver in the wild card round the Bills were fortunate to get past Baltimore. Allen had just 127 yards passing and the Bills totaled 273 yards. They were aided by three Ravens turnovers and that’s been something Sean McDermott’s defense has prided itself in. The Bills had 32 takeaways during the season and led the NFL with a plus-24 turnover margin. Allen has done a masterful job protecting the football throwing only six interceptions in 531 pass attempts. The Bills had the fewest giveaways during the season and have not turned the ball over in two playoff games.
Playing so many close games the Chiefs haven’t seemed as dominant as they’ve been in previous years yet they won a franchise record 15 games. They were 10-0 in games decided by seven points or less. One reason why is Patrick Mahomes, who just wins football games. He didn’t have spectacular numbers in last week’s 23-14 win over Houston with a postseason career-low 177 passing yards, but he did have a TD pass and the Chiefs did not commit a turnover.
Like last year’s Super Bowl winning squad the Chiefs have played stingy defense. They had the fourth-best scoring defense during the regular season and allowed just one touchdown last week while holding the Texans to 1 of 3 in the red zone. They also sacked C.J. Stroud eight times with George Karlaftis getting the hat trick.
We’ve seen some close games between these teams in the past with the four games before Buffalo’s Week 11 win all decided by six points or less. Hell, even the most recent contest had a 2-point margin until Allen sealed it with a TD run with two minutes left in the fourth. I would like to see Buffalo finally get over the hump but Mahomes is nearly unbeatable in the playoffs. He’s won his last eight starts and has a career playoff record of 16-3.
AFC Championship Same Game Parlay Picks
Chiefs -1.5
Bills / Chiefs OVER 47.5
Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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