The Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots on Monday Night in a game that can be seen on ESPN and ABC. This will be the first time that Buffalo will be a road favorite at New England with Bill Belichick as head coach. The Bills will look to become the first AFC East team to sweep the Patriots in a season series since 2000. The Bills have already clinched the AFC East, but they will still want to kick the Patriots while they are down. The Bills are listed as 7-point road favorites in this contest. Let’s look at the Monday night matchup and NFL picks.
Watch this regular season NFL Week 16 matchup on Monday, December 28, at 8:15 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium. Catch the game live on ESPN and ABC and bet on NFL odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Buffalo Bills -7
New England Patriots +7
Total 45
Odds Analysis
The Bills opened up as a 6.5-point favorite and that number has gone to 7. It is hard to see anything other than Buffalo money in this game, as the Patriots have shown very little in recent weeks.
Injury Report
The Bills are in pretty good shape in the injury department, but since they have clinched the AFC East, they have no real incentive to take any chances. There is only one bye in each conference in the playoffs and the Bills are not going to catch Kansas City. Buffalo got good news about an injury to top wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who was banged up last week, but will the Bills want to risk him this week? It could be that they sit Diggs this week so that is something to monitor. The Bills could also activate John Brown this week. He has missed a lot of time with an ankle injury but he looks ready to return.
The Patriots will be without top cornerback Stephon Gilmore who will miss the rest of the season with a torn quad. The Patriots are missing a lot of players on defense and the loss of Gilmore is another huge blow. The Patriots could also be without linebacker John Simon who left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. New England also is listing center David Andrews questionable with a calf injury. Running back Damien Harris didn’t play last week with an ankle injury, but he may return this week. There is also a chance that Julian Edelman could return from injury, but whether the Patriots want to risk him in a meaningless game is in question.
Key Matchup
The Patriots are in definite trouble when it comes to defending Josh Allen and the Buffalo passing attack. The Patriots might have been able to slow down Allen a little bit if Gilmore was playing but they have issues with Gilmore out. The only thing that would help New England’s cause would be if Diggs doesn’t play. Keep an eye on the injury report this week for Buffalo because if Diggs doesn’t play then New England might have a chance to keep Allen under control. If Diggs is healthy, and in the lineup, then look for Allen to have a huge game.
Game Trends
The Bills are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings at New England. The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bills are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. The Over is 5-1-1 in the Bills last 7 road games. The Over is 6-2 in the Bills last 8 vs. the AFC East. The Under is 6-0 in the Patriots last 6 games overall. The Under is 4-1 in the Patriots last 5 Monday games.
Free ATS Pick
I said last Monday night that it was a tough choice and this is a similar situation. The Bills really have nothing to play for, but the Patriots are so banged up and missing so many players they are hard to trust. Belichick has not committed to starting Cam Newton this week, so there is a chance New England goes with Jarrett Stidham. He would at least inject some life into this team and give them a chance. If he gets the start, I will back the Patriots plus the points. If it is Newton, I will just play the game under the total.
NFL Pick: Bills 23, Patriots 17
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