Arizona Cardinals rookie head coach Steve Wilks will find out sooner or later that winning in the NFL isn’t this easy. The Cards improved to 3-0 with their 27-3 victory over the Cowboys on Sunday night, and they’re forcing turnovers at an alarming rate. Arizona has produced 16 takeaways in three games. Four teams had less than that all of last season. It also helped that Cardale Jones, Taysom Hill and Cooper Rush were the opposing starting quarterbacks in those games. Next up is Chad Kelly and the Denver Broncos in the Week 4 preseason finale.
This preseason Week 4 battle will take place on Thursday, August 30, 2018, at 10 p.m. ET at University of Phoenix Stadium. Watch the game live on NFL Network.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos +3
Arizona Cardinals -3
Over/Under 35
Odds Analysis
Home field advantage is always worth something in preseason games and the Cardinals are favored by the standard field goal. Arizona is 3-0 SU and ATS, but they haven’t been tested by an opponent’s top group. This might be as close as they come all preseason. Arizona opened as a 3-point favorite with an average total of 35.
Quarterback Rotation
Kelly vaulted past Paxton Lynch in training camp to take over the No. 2 job and he’ll get the start on Thursday, according to Vance Joseph. While it may seem like a throw away game, it certainly isn’t from the Broncos perspective. Kelly has played well enough to earn the primary backup job, but he was also aided by the poor play of Lynch. If Kelly stumbles it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Broncos look for outside help at the position.
Kelly took over to start the second half last week and completed 7 of 11 throws for 73 yards while leading three field goal drives as the Broncos earned their first preseason win. Overall, Kelly is 28 of 41 for 340 yards with three touchdowns and a pick. He’s averaging 8.3 yards per attempt with a rating of 107.8. He’s expected to play the first half. Lynch had another lackluster effort going 3 of 7 for 39 yards in mop up duty. The second half of Thursday’s game will be another chance to prove he belongs, either in Denver or somewhere else.
It sure wasn’t anything the Cards did on offense that led to their victory over Dallas. They managed just 63 net passing yards and 209 total yards with 59 coming on one touchdown run. Top draft pick Josh Rosen didn’t play due to a thumb injury, but he’ll take some snaps on Thursday if he’s healthy enough, according to Wilks.
With Rosen unavailable, Mike Glennon and Chad Kanoff handled the duties after a brief appearance from Sam Bradford. Bradford won’t play on Thursday and Rosen isn’t expected to play much if he’s cleared. Glennon will likely take a bulk of the snaps to improve on his weak preseason numbers. He was 8 of 10 for 35 yards against Dallas, but he owns a 39.1 rating.
Key Stat
They haven’t faced a starting quarterback yet this preseason and they won’t on Thursday, but that hasn’t stopped the Cardinals from being ridiculously good at forcing turnovers. They got plenty of help from the Cowboys last week with two muffed punts part of the eight total. The Cards recovered one of the muffs for a touchdown and Patrick Peterson returned one of three interceptions for a score.
With 10 fumble recoveries and six interceptions, the Cards have 16 takeaways in three games and lead the NFL with a plus-15 differential. Arizona’s 16 takeaways are more than Miami, Cincinnati, Oakland and Cleveland amassed in 16 games last season.
Free ATS Pick
If the Broncos value the football, they should be in a good position to win this game. Arizona has taken advantage of sloppy play by their opponents to score points and set up short fields, they haven’t relied on their offense to do much. And with their play makers sitting out and Glennon quarterbacking, Denver should take advantage.
Give the edge to Kelly at the QB spot. Taking after his Hall of Fame uncle Jim Kelly, Chad has seized the opportunity and has played solidly this preseason. He will play the first half barring any setbacks and the Broncos should do enough where they won’t have to rely on Lynch. Rosen might play, but his presence shouldn’t affect the outcome of this one, which goes to the Broncos.
NFL Betting Odds: Broncos 20, Cardinals 15
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