The Week 16 edition of Thursday Night Football gives us another crucial division matchup with playoff implications when the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC West clash. Both teams are right in the thick of the postseason picture in a crowded conference race and can solidify their footing with a win. A loss, though, makes things a little less clear. The Chargers boast the best scoring defense in the NFL and held the Broncos to 16 points winning the Week 6 contest by a touchdown to cover the 3-point closing line. It snapped the Bolts’ three-game losing streak in the series. The previous four encounters all had a closing spread of 3 or 3.5-points and this one continues the trend with LA laying 3-points on the early at the Crypto Sportsbook.
NFL Betting Lines
Broncos at Chargers Betting Lines
Denver Broncos +3 / ML +175
Los Angeles Chargers -3 / ML -208
Over / Under 42
The Chargers have been methodical in their approach this season and their earlier win over the Broncos was a microcosm of how they win games. They held 11 of their first 13 opponents to 20 points or less transforming the defense under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh. For years we saw the Bolts play in a number of shootouts with a defense that had a hard time stopping opponents. They entered their Week 16 game against Tampa Bay with the No. 1 scoring defense allowing less than 16 points per game.
That’s the number they finished with in the Week 6 game blanking the Broncos for three quarters and finishing off a 23-16 win. Teams can move the ball against LA’s defense but the group stiffens in the red zone. The Chargers have the No. 1 ranked red zone defense allowing a TD on just 41.9 trips. They also have the seventh-best third-down defense and allowing just 5.2 yards per play. Opponents don’t get bonus possessions either with the Chargers having a league-low six giveaways.
If you’re going to beat the Chargers you need to play a clean game. Bo Nix has gotten better as the season’s progressed and Denver’s offense had a recent stretch where they averaged 36 points in wins over Atlanta, Las Vegas and Cleveland. However, when playing some of the better teams in the league the group has struggled. In losses to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City and the Chargers the Broncos failed to score more than 16 points and averaged just 11.5 points. Seven of their eight wins through Week 13 were against teams that have a losing record.
Both defenses have been outstanding this season which is why I really want to back the UNDER. The teams have combined for fewer than 40 points in each of the previous three meetings and the total of 42 is the highest in three games. An issue for the Chargers is the health of Justin Herbert. He suffered an ankle injury and thigh bruise in the Week 14 loss to Kansas City and dealt with a high ankle sprain earlier in the year. The Broncos will try and get after him with the best pass rush in the NFL. Denver leads the league in sacks and got to Herbert three times in the first game.
Herbert was still able to guide an efficient offense throwing for 237 yards and a TD in the Week 6 meeting. Through his first 13 games Herbert was completing 64 percent of his passes averaging more than seven yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and only one interception. I like LA’s ball control offense and they simply wear opponents down and frustrate them with a vanilla attack.
I hit another Thursday night same game parlay last week backing the Rams +2.5 and UNDER 47. LA went from being involved in the highest scoring game of the season the week prior beating Buffalo 44-42, to a game where six field goals accounted for all the scoring. The Rams helped their playoff chances with a 12-6 victory and lined my pockets for a stretch run.
Broncos at Chargers Same Game Parlay Picks
Chargers -3
Broncos / Chargers UNDER 42
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