The Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Chiefs are huge favorites to defeat the Broncos yet again, as Kansas City has beaten Denver the last 10 times and outscored the Broncos by a combined margin of 301-164. The last win for the Broncos in this series came in September of 2015 when Peyton Manning was at quarterback. Let’s look at Sunday Night Football and NFL picks.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Sunday, December 6, 2020, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Week 13 NFL Odds: Chiefs -14, 51
Broncos vs. Chiefs TV Coverage: NBC
The Chiefs are big favorites on Sunday night and for good reason. Kansas City looks every bit the part of defending Super Bowl Champion at 10-1, while the Broncos are 4-7 and once again looking to next season. Denver is on pace for their fourth straight losing season and there is no reason to think they are going to win this game in Kansas City. The only good news for Denver is that it can’t get any worse than it was last week when they had no quarterbacks. This week they get Drew Lock back under center and his backups are also available.
The Chiefs will have to avoid a letdown on Sunday night. Kansas City is coming off a revenge game win against the Raiders and a win against Tom Brady and the Bucs. It is possible that the Chiefs will have a letdown against the Broncos, but will it matter? Kansas City has been so good offensively that the Broncos may not be able to stop them. Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill is coming off a monster game against the Bucs and he has a TD catch in 9 of 11 games this season. Tight end Travis Kelce has 100 yards or more in three of his last four games.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes could well be on track to win league MVP this season. The Broncos are 7th in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 210.1 yards per game, but they will be without their best cornerback, Bryce Callahan who has a foot injury.
Key Matchup
The Broncos seem to be in huge trouble in this game with the injury to Callahan. Going against the Kansas City passing attack is difficult when you are at full strength, but now the Broncos are without Callahan. Pro Football Focus listed Callahan as one of the top cover cornerbacks in the league. He had two interceptions and five pass breakups in 10 games. That will put huge pressure on A.J. Bouye who has been dealing with injuries for much of this season. Denver will also be forced to use rookies Michael Ojemudia and Essang Bassey in this game. It should mean a big game for Mahomes and the Kansas City passing attack.
Key Trends
The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. The Broncos are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. the AFC West. The Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December. The Chiefs are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Under is 11-3-1 in the Broncos last 15 vs. the AFC West. The Over is 4-1 in the Chiefs last 5 vs. the AFC West. The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Free Pick
I got back to picking sides last week in the Sunday night game and it worked well with an easy win with Green Bay. I would like to make a case for taking Denver in this game because the public is going to be all over the Chiefs, but the only case I can make for taking the Broncos is a possible letdown from Kansas City. That is not enough for me, so I will lay the points and take the Chiefs.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 13 ATS Pick: Chiefs -14
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