The Denver Broncos needed a quarterback after the Trevor Siemien experiment failed, and they paid handsomely for a career journeyman. The results have been mixed early in the Case Keenum era, but what you can’t take away are the two victories. Keenum engineered a comeback over the hated Raiders last week and he’s 13-3 in his last 16 starts. This isn’t unfamiliar territory for the Broncos, who opened last season with two wins before losing on the road and going 3-11 the rest of the way. The Broncos look to avoid a similar situation when they visit the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3.
This matchup in Week 3 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, September 23, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET at MT Bank Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos +5
Baltimore Ravens -5
Over/Under 43.5
Odds Analysis
The Ravens are getting some early love from the betting public, causing a slight uptick in the spread. Baltimore opened at -4.5 and with over 60 percent of the money backing them the line spiked to -5. The total was wagered down a half-point to its current 43.5 with the money spread evenly on the over/under. Unless something drastic happens before kickoff, we won’t see much movement.
Injury Report
Jared Veldheer – Denver’s offensive line has done a nice job opening holes for Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman in the running game. But the group may be without one of its own after Veldheer suffered a concussion in last week’s win. The Broncos have the second-best ground game in the league with 157 yards per game and the line has allowed just two sacks of Keenum. If Veldheer doesn’t clear the protocol, Billy Turner will start in his place.
C.J. Mosley – The Ravens suffered a huge loss when Mosley left last Thursday’s game with a knee injury. The leader of the defense left his mates struggling to recover without him and Baltimore had one of its worst halves of football in recent memory. After Mosley left with what was diagnosed as a bone bruise, the Ravens allowed touchdowns on the next four Cincinnati drives. The long week has given Mosley time to recover, but he’s unlikely to play against the Broncos.
Player to Watch
While most of the league is trying to figure out the new roughing the passer rule, Von Miller is having no problems. The premiere edge rusher in the NFL, Miller continues to add to his career sack total by taking down the opposing quarterback a league-high four times. Miller got to Russell Wilson three times in the opener and added another sack of Derek Carr last week. He also had a sack negated by a penalty.
Miller was the focus of constant double-teams last year when the Broncos lacked a presence on the other side, yet he still had 10 sacks. The addition of Bradley Chubb to fill that role has opened things up for Miller, and he’s been a menace.
Key Stat
4 – One thing the Broncos raved about when signing Keenum was his accuracy. And why not, after all he completed 67.6 percent of his passes last season leading Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game and he was successful on 62 percent of his career throws entering this season. The start to his new gig has gotten off to a rough start, but it’s been masked by a pair of victories, and that’s the bottom line
Keenum has completed just 59.5 percent of his throws this season and was only 19 of 35 against the Raiders last week. He also tossed his fourth inception of the year to tie Matthew Stafford for the league-lead. Keenum threw just seven picks in 481 attempts all last season.
Free ATS Pick
Denver tests its might on the road for the first time this season and I don’t think it’s going to go well. The Ravens were flustered by the loss of their defensive leader and it showed against Cincinnati when they allowed 28 first half points. That’s an anomaly and won’t happen again anytime soon.
Even if Mosley doesn’t play the Ravens have had time to make the proper adjustments. Offensively, the Ravens are a different club than what we saw the past few seasons. Flacco is healthy and he has some weapons, and you can bet Baltimore took notice of what Derek Carr did to the Broncos last week. Denver had some luck on its side to start 2-0 and I believe that expires on the road. Go with the home team to win by at least a touchdown with the score falling below the total.
NFL Betting Odds: Ravens 24, Broncos 16
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