For the third time in four weeks the Atlanta Falcons are a featured primetime performer, this time taking on NFC South rival the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup. Both teams are coming off wins, albeit in different ways. The Bucs put on an offensive show in their 33-16 win over Philadelphia as a 1-point dog. It was their third payout in four games. The Falcons got a last second field goal to even their record with a 26-24 decision over the Saints in another division matchup. With four of their first five games at home, beating the Saints was crucial after Atlanta dropped their first two home games. The Falcons are a 3-point favorite on the early line at the Crypto Sportsbook and are 0-2 ATS when laying points.
NFL Betting Lines
Buccaneers at Falcons Betting Lines
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Atlanta Falcons -3
Total 43.5
Buccaneers at Falcons Same Game Parlay Picks
Tampa Bay +3
Tampa Bay / Atlanta OVER 43.5
When I saw the opening total of 43.5 I immediately did a double take thinking that number was on the low side. The teams have combined to go over that total in eight of the last 10 meetings, including the most recent in Week 14 last season. Baker Mayfield threw two scoring passes and ran for another touchdown in Tampa’s 29-25 victory. Mayfield was in control last week putting together one of the finest games of his career with 347 passing yards and two TDs with an additional rushing score.
The Bucs riddled Philly’s defense with a balanced attack that produced 445 total yards and 6.0 yards per play. Bucky Irving and Rachaad White each ran for 49 yards on 10 carries with the ground game amassing 111 yards and two scores. The offense wasn’t as efficient but the Falcons had a season-high point total in their 26-24 win over the Saints. In fact the offense didn’t score a touchdown with four Younghoe Koo field goals and two defensive TDs getting the number.
I do expect Atlanta to hit a different gear on offense soon now that Kirk Cousins has a few games under his belt. It can’t be easy going to a new team while still recovering from an injury that put him on the shelf for nearly a year. The Falcons have a weapon in Bijan Robinson and he was rarely used on Sunday. Robinson had on 11 touches compiling 74 yards from scrimmage. The Falcons were able to move the football amassing 315 total yards but had only one red zone visit and didn’t score a TD.
With two average defenses at best going head to head against offenses with an abundance of playmakers I like the OVER. There have been some high-scoring affairs in the past with the clubs cashing the OVER in seven of the last 10 meetings.
As far as backing a team against the spread I like the Falcons at home laying the points. We don’t often see a team play four of its first five games at home and breaking the ice against the Saints was big. I’m still waiting, as I’m sure the Atlanta fans are, for the Falcons to show more consistency on offense. We caught a glimpse of what the unit can be in the Week 2 win over the Eagles. Cousins had 241 yards passing and two TDs and Robinson rushed for 97 yards with another 25 yards receiving. The Falcons had nearly 400 total yards and didn’t turn the ball over.
The Falcons need to get Robinson more involved and he should get more touches. He’s probably a good player to look at for a prop to add to the NFL same game parlay. The Bucs have been susceptible to the run and Robinson is a lot like Saquon Barkley, who scampered for 84 yards on Sunday.
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