The Tampa Bay Buccaneers begin the season with the most difficult three-game stretch of the season, and they’ll have to navigate the gauntlet without suspended starting quarterback Jameis Winston. Instead, the Bucs will turn to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will tangle with another old-timer when the Bucs hook up with the New Orleans Saints in one of three divisional matchups on the Week 1 schedule. Fitzpatrick and Brees have combined to play 379 games, and throw for over 97,000 yards with 661 touchdowns. Unfortunately for Fitz, Brees has a huge advantage in every category.
This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Sunday, September 9, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5
New Orleans Saints -9.5
Over/Under 49.5
Odds Analysis
The line on this game took a turn when Winston’s suspension was announced. The Saints opened as a 7-point favorite and the number moved to 9.5 after the verdict. The money is spread evenly meaning this is probably where the line will end up on game day. Nearly 85 percent of the betting public is backing the under on a total that currently sits at 49.5.
Injury Report
Jameis Winston – Unfortunately his wandering hands cost him a three-game suspension and the Bucs will be without their starter for the opener. Winston showed flashes late last season after returning from a shoulder injury, closing the year with a marvelous five-game stretch. He completed better than 67 percent of his passes and averaged nearly 317 yards per game with nine touchdowns. The Bucs lost the first four contests by a total of 15 points before knocking off the Saints in the season finale. He was better in three preseason games completing 73.2 percent for 388 yards with three touchdowns and zero picks. Fitz won’t give the Bucs those kind of numbers.
Mark Ingram – The Saints will be without one of their offensive weapons as Ingram begins serving a four-game suspension. Teamed with offensive rookie of the year Alvin Kamara, the duo formed the most potent backfield in the NFL last year. Ingram put together the finest season of his career rushing for a career-best 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also was effective in the passing game with 58 grabs for 416 yards. The Saints signed Mike Gillislee this week and will use rookie Boston Scott in the meantime.
Last Meeting
The Saints had a chance to clinch the NFC South title with a win in Tampa in last year’s regular season finale, but a stumble nearly cost them. They got the title anyway with a Carolina loss, but the mood was somber despite the accomplishment. A Brees touchdown pass gave the Saints a 24-20 lead halfway through the fourth quarter, but the defense couldn’t hold it.
A field goal cut the lead to one and the Saints allowed Winston to march the Bucs 95-yards, converting a pair of third downs along the way. Winston connected with Chris Godwin on a 39-yard scoring toss for the game-winner with nine seconds left on the clock. Winston threw for 363 yards and ran for another score as the Bucs ended a two-game losing streak to the Saints. New Orleans won’t face Winston in the opener, but they better be ready to stop Tampa’s passing game.
Player to Watch
For the first time in NFL history a team had two players amass over 1,500 yards from scrimmage. It’ll be interesting to see how Kamara does without his sidekick Ingram around for the first quarter of the season. Kamara earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors by scampering for 728 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground and he was more lethal as a pass catcher with 81 receptions for an additional 826 yards and five scores.
Kamara was also used on kickoff returns where he averaged 31.5 yards on 11 attempts. He took one of his returns 106 yards to the house against Tampa Bay in last year’s final regular season game.
Free ATS Pick
The spread for this game scares me. Fitzpatrick is a serviceable QB and the Bucs have weapons in the passing game with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. And Dirk Koetter will pull out all the stops with this being his final season if the Bucs don’t make the playoffs.
Still, it’s hard to go against the Saints, who have visions of a Super Bowl with a stacked roster. Ingram will be missed, but Brees has his own weapons and that means more opportunities to throw the football. The Saints will pressure Fitzpatrick, who isn’t as mobile as Winston, and the defense will shut Tampa down, allowing for the Saints to get the victory, but it will be closer than most expect.
NFL Betting Odds: Saints 27, Buccaneers 20
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