The championship window for the Buffalo Bills is still open, but with each passing year it closes ever so slightly. With 47 wins over the last four seasons the Bills are one of the top teams in the AFC, however playoff losses to Kansas City and the Bengals over the last three seasons has prevented Buffalo from reaching the Super Bowl. One could expect 2023 to be their year or maybe they just aren’t in the same sphere as those other clubs. Josh Allen is a gifted quarterback and the Bills made few changes during the offseason as they look to finally get over the hump.
What makes the postseason results more disheartening is that the Bills were probably the best team in the AFC last season. They matched a franchise record with 13 wins and had the second-best scoring differential in the NFL despite playing one fewer game since their contest with Cincinnati late in the season was cancelled. If anything their playoff failures should serve as motivation during the year making the 10.5 win total seem low.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Buffalo Bills 2023 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Bills Over 10.5 Wins -145
Bills Under 10.5 Wins +129
We didn’t see major changes to the roster, which is probably a good thing since the Bills are so close to reaching the pinnacle. Some internal issues flared up with Stefon Diggs skipping a mandatory mini-camp. According to everyone associated with the team the issue was resolved, but we won’t really know until the season gets underway how that incident will affect the offense.
The Bills were mocked when they drafted Allen seventh overall in the 2018 draft. Well, the kid out of Wyoming is having the last laugh and won’t be completely satisfied until he delivers Buffalo its first Super Bowl championship. Throwing for more than 4200 yards in each of the past three seasons, the Bills’ offense has been a force ranking in the top three in scoring in each of those seasons while placing among the top 5 in total yards. It was the offense that hurt them last postseason, though, as Allen completed less than 60 percent of his passes and the team rushed for only 64 yards in the 27-10 loss to Cincinnati. It was the fewest points they scored all season.
Another strong year from the defense will help the Bills reach double-digit wins again. The club ranked second behind the Jets in the AFC in total defense and their 17 interceptions was the fourth-most in the NFL. They were able to keep opponents out of the end zone with the second best red zone percentage while holding teams to a 37.5 percentage conversion rate on third downs. And their three regular season losses were by a total of just eight points. A vastly underrated group didn’t see much turnover during the offseason and a full year from Von Miller should keep them dependable at stopping the opposition.
2023 Buffalo Bills Schedule
Week 1: at New York Jets, Monday, September 11, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 2: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, September 17, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: at Washington Commanders, Sunday, September 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: vs. Miami Dolphins, Sunday, October 1, 1 p.m. ET
Week 5: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, October 8, 9:30 a.m. ET (London)
Week 6: vs. New York Giants, Sunday, October 15, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 7: at New England Patriots, Sunday, October 22, 1 p.m. ET
Week 8: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Thursday, October 26, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime)
Week 9: at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, November 5, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 10: vs. Denver Broncos, Monday, November 13, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 11: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, November 19, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 12: at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, November 26, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 13: BYE WEEK
Week 14: at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, December 10, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 15: vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, December 17, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 16: at Los Angeles Chargers, Saturday, December 23, 8 p.m. ET
Week 17: vs. New England Patriots, Sunday, December 31, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, January 7 (TBA)
The AFC East looks to be much better and with the Bills playing a first-place schedule that includes matchups with the Bengals, Eagles and Chiefs all on the road, matching last season’s win total could be tough. I thought this year’s projected number was low at 10.5 until I did some research and the schedule stood out as the road block. And at this point it’s not about winning a bunch of games during the season rather doing it in the playoffs. The Bill are one of the best in the AFC and the entire league and they are a real threat to reach the Super Bowl with 11 wins during the year the floor.
NFL Odds: Buffalo Bills OVER 10.5 Wins
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