The Buffalo Bills have only made it to the postseason once in the last 20 years, but some are optimistic about their chances in the weak AFC East this season. Buffalo ended 2018 on a positive note, going 4-3 over its last seven games with Josh Allen putting up some big numbers. This team has some intriguing pieces on offense, and if the Bills can be a league average team on that side of the ball, they should challenge for a playoff spot after Buffalo finished last season second in total defense.
Will the Buffalo Bills Make the Playoffs in 2019?
Yes +325
No -450
Odds Analysis
According to the NFL betting odds, the Bills are projected to come in third in the AFC East. The AFC is very wide open this season, and Buffalo doesn’t have too tough of a schedule.
Breaking Down Buffalo’s Offense
Josh Allen wasn’t an abject disaster in 2018, but now the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Observers are focusing on the fact that he was the most valuable fantasy quarterback over the last month of the season, and they are ignoring just how inaccurate he was as a passer.
Allen was one of the worst passers in the league last season, and he was one of only three quarterbacks to have a negative pass rating in ESPN’s QBR metric. Allen completed less than 53 percent of his passes, threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and he averaged just 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Those do not bode well for future success.
His value came from his ability to run, and Buffalo is expected to continue to use Allen in that manner this season. The quarterback averaged 7.1 yards per carry and led the Bills in rushing yards, but opponents are likely to adjust if he doesn’t make significant improvement as a passer.
LeSean McCoy had the worst season of his career last year as opponents stacked the line to stop the run. McCoy averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in 2018, and he wasn’t much of a receiving threat out of the backfield either. That led to the Bills bringing in veterans Frank Gore and TJ Yeldon this offseason, and Devin Singletary was drafted out of Florida Atlantic.
The receivers should give Allen plenty of options, and this is one of the most underrated receiving corps in the league. Zay Jones set records as a possession receiver in college, and Cole Beasley is great at running underneath routes too. John Brown can stretch the field, but everything hinges on Allen developing more as a passer.
Breaking Down Buffalo’s Defense
The Bills had one of the league’s best defenses last season, and they could be even better with Ed Oliver in the middle of the line. Oliver had the most upside of any player in the draft this year, and he could be an Aaron Donald type. That would make this Buffalo defense terrifying. The defensive line is already one to be reckoned with. Jerry Hughes is an excellent pass rusher, and Star Lotulelei is tough to move in the middle of the line.
Tremaine Edmunds has all the tools to be a fantastic middle linebacker for years to come. Edmunds showed a lot of potential as a rookie middle linebacker, and he has an experienced veteran flanking him in Lorenzo Alexander.
One of the league’s most underrated cornerbacks highlights an underappreciated secondary. Tre’Davious White is an elite cornerback that can shut down many of the best receivers in the game. The safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde is strong too.
Prediction
I love the Bills defense, and that’s why I’m tempted to take ‘Yes’. Oliver could be a real game changer provided he matures, and Edmunds might make the leap this season.
Unfortunately, this offense is probably going to be dismal once more. Allen’s accuracy issues will make it easy for opposing teams to scheme against this offense, leaving the defense out in the lurch too many times. Take the ‘No’ here.
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