Ending what was the longest current playoff drought in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills won nine games in 2017 and participated in their first postseason game since the 1999 season. They were probably the least deserving playoff team last year, having snuck in on a tie-breaker, but they got in nonetheless only to crater in the wild card game. The Bills aren’t getting much respect for the 2018 season and they need to find a quarterback and an identity. They are likely to regress this season, but a three game dropoff is significant.
Buffalo Bills Futures Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills Over 6 Wins +112
Buffalo Bills Under 6 Wins -135
2018 Buffalo Bills Offense Preview
The first order of business is to find a quarterback to replace Tyrod Taylor. The Bills got their guy in Josh Allen, who was drafted with the seventh overall pick. They also landed veteran A.J. McCarron, who backed up Andy Dalton for the past several years in Cincinnati. The Bills desperately need more pop in the passing game and they felt Taylor wasn’t delivering, despite putting up solid numbers, not turning the ball over and leading the team to the postseason. The Bills ranked 31st in pass offense last year with 176.6 yards per game.
LeSean McCoy should get plenty of touches again as the lead back and the ground game must be effective as the QB situation gets ironed out. With McCoy running for 1,138 yards last season, the Bills were the sixth-best rushing team. The addition of Chris Ivory should reduce McCoy’s workload and he gives the offense another capable back. Not much was done during the offseason to upgrade the group of receivers, instead the Bills are counting on in-season acquisition Kelvin Benjamin to stay healthy and last year’s second-round pick Zay Jones to show some development.
2018 Buffalo Bills Defense Preview
A former defensive coordinator in Philadelphia and Carolina, Sean McDermott worked his magic in Buffalo last season, and the group was a major reason why the Bills won nine games. They struggled against the run, however, and the Bills attempted to shore up that part of the unit by adding Star Lotulelei and drafting Harrison Phillips to fill a void up front. Tremaine Edmunds was taken with the 16th overall pick in the draft and will strengthen a group of linebackers that is aging, but still active.
With opponents easily running the ball against the Bills, the secondary didn’t get much work last season. But that area appears to be a strength and if the others help out the Bills should improve their 26th-ranked overall unit. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are ball-hawking safeties who each had five interceptions in 2017. Tre’Davious White had four picks to earn All-Rookie Team honors. If Vontae Davis returns from an injury that limited him to just five games, the secondary will again be rock solid.
2018 Buffalo Bills Schedule Analysis
Playing in the AFC East means two meetings with the Patriots every season, and that’s never easy. But with tossups against the rebuilding Jets and Dolphins, the Bills have an opportunity to pay over bettors on this one. They also get favorable matchups with the NFC North and AFC South.
The first half schedule doesn’t do the Bills any favors with three of their first four games, and five of the first seven on the road. The good news is that the back end is loaded with home games and the Bills will play four of their last six at home following their bye in Week 11.
The Final Verdict
If the quarterback situation gets worked out the Bills should eclipse their projected win total. This is after all a team that won nine games last year with an offense that struggled. Allen will lead the troops at some point and the team is tickled with his ability. McCoy remains an elite back and the ground game has been terrific in his tenure with the team. With more production from Benjamin and Jones in the passing game, the Bills aren’t that far away from being a playoff contender.
That probably won’t happen given the turnover on the offensive line and without a No. 1 QB entering the season, so the Bills could easily regress. But the schedule has several winnable games and if the Bills pull off another victory or two along the way, the over is money.
NFL Betting Odds: Buffalo Bills Over 6 Wins
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