Dating back to 2017-18 when Sean McDermott took over the reins of the Buffalo Bills, the franchise has been traveling along an upward slope. The team amassed a 9-7 record in McDermott’s rookie season to smash its 6.5-game season win total odds and finish second to the New England Patriots in the AFC East standings. After taking a step back in Josh Allen’s rookie season the following year, things really started to come together immediately after. The Bills would go on to log their first 10+ win campaign in 2019-20. Though it lost for the fifth straight time in the Wild Card round, the experience gave the team all it needed to make a deep run the following season. The Bills were the AFC’s best story during the COVID-marred season. Buffalo would match former Super Bowl editions by attaining 13 regular season wins and reaching the AFC Championship Game where it would eventually see its season come to an end against the Kansas City Chiefs. Online sportsbooks are extremely bullish on the team heading into 2021-22 with it one of only nine to own a double-digit win total. They’re also the current -160 favorites to take home division bragging rights again and sit only behind the Chiefs on the odds to win the AFC. BillsMafia’ tailgates will attain an all-time high of ridiculousness with Buffalo now a bonafide Super Bowl contender!
Buffalo Bills Season Win Total: 10.5 Over -171
Buffalo has seen its win totals progressively get longer three of the last four seasons. It clocked in at 6.5 in 2017, 5.5 in 2018, 7 in 2019 and 9 in 2020. You would’ve cashed futures tickets 75 percent of the time had you bet the over each time. This season, Buffalo hit the betting board with a 10.5-game season win total. Though it’s yet to move off the opener, it might only be a matter of time until it does with heavy -171 juice attached to the impost. The way the team currently looks, over bettors are still likely safe should it hit 11 with lower vig.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds at BookMaker
Buffalo Bills Football Schedule
Week 1: Steelers at Bills, Sunday, September 12, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2: Bills at Dolphins, Sunday, September 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: Redskins at Bills, Sunday, September 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: Texans at Bills, Sunday, October 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 5: Bills at Chiefs, Sunday, October 10, 7:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 6: Bills at Titans, Monday, October 18, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 7: Bye Week
Week 8: Dolphins at Bills, Sunday, October 31, 1 p.m. ET
Week 9: Bills at Jaguars, Sunday, November 7, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: Bills at Jets, Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: Colts at Bills, Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: Bills at Saints, Thursday, November 25, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 13: Patriots at Bills, Monday, December 6, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 14: Bills at Buccaneers, Sunday, December 12, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 15: Panthers at Bills, Sunday, December 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 16: Bills at Patriots, Sunday, December 26, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: Falcons at Bills, Sunday, January 2, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: Jets at Bills, Sunday, January 9, 1 p.m. ET
Buffalo Bills Season Win Total Analysis
The defending AFC East champs and AFC runner-ups only have seven games lined up against playoff teams from a season ago, and they’re still far and away the cream of the division crop. The Patriots retooled in the offseason, but still don’t have the offense to run with the Bills. The New York Jets aren’t likely to be the pushovers they proved to be with the prior regime under Robert Saleh’s watch, but NY is still the owner of a 6-game season win total. Miami is likely to be the Bills toughest competitor evidenced by its near 10-game win total, but Buffalo can split the season rivalry and still rate out as one of the best in the game. They get the NFC and AFC South along with standalone games against the Pittsburgh Steelers (H/W1), Washington Football Team (H/W3) and Kansas City Chiefs (A/W5). Buffalo’s strength of schedule ranks out as the ninth easiest per Sharp Football Stats when taking every team’s respective win total into account.
While the defense leaves a bit to be desired, you can’t argue with how effective and efficient OC Brian Daboll’s offense has been since he started calling the shots. Should the Bills cash over tickets a third straight season, it’ll be because of MVP hopeful Josh Allen and the offense. The Bills gunslinger eclipsed the 4,000 passing yard plateau in 2020-21 by throwing for 4,544 and a 37:10 TD/INT ratio. His 107.2 QB Rating was 20+ points higher than his previous high mark. Only Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers have shorter odds to win the Regular Season MVP Award which means another banner year is in store for the 1-2 punch of Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen. Gabriel Davis steps into the John Brown role, while Cole Beasley is still around to make hay in the slot. Buffalo’s aerial attack ranked No. 3 overall and the offense as a whole ranked No. 2 in both total yards and points scored. This offense will win a bunch of games in 2021-22!
Buffalo Bills Season Win Total Prediction: Over 10.5
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