The biggest game of the Week 13 NFL betting schedule takes place on Monday Night when the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills in a key AFC East showdown. The teams play twice in the span of three weeks with the outcomes playing a big part in determining the division winner. The Pats are the hottest team in the league with a six-game SU and ATS winning streak vaulting them to a half-game lead in the standings. Despite their inconsistent play the last few weeks, the Bills are coming off a dominant 31-6 win over the Saints on Thanksgiving and hit the board as a 3.5-point favorite.
This regular season Week 13 matchup will take place on Monday, December 6, 2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY and will be televised on ESPN.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots +2.5
Buffalo Bills -2.5
Total 42
Odds Analysis
The red hot Pats are getting a lot of support at the betting window forcing the line to move a full point. New England opened as a 3.5-point road dog with that number wagered down to Pats +2.5. It’s a fairly significant move jumping below the key number of 3. And it’s warranted based on New England’s recent play. They’ve won and covered their last six games, most recently taking down another top AFC club Tennessee, 36-13. It’s been nearly two months since the Bills won consecutive games, but they are coming off one of their better showings in a while. They blasted the shorthanded Saints on Thanksgiving giving them a boost of confidence into their mini-bye ahead of this showdown. The Bills are just 2-3-1 ATS in their last six games playing as a favorite of at least 6-points in each one.
Player to Watch
The up and down play of the Bills over their last six games is directly related to Josh Allen. When he’s good he’s really good, but we’ve seen a lot of the bad that plagued him in the earlier stages of his career. Allen avoided turning the ball over for the most part last season throwing just 10 interceptions in 572 pass attempts. He’s in the middle of rough patch with two picks against the Saints giving him seven in the past four games matching last season’s total. He did make up for the miscues with four touchdown passes, but avoiding costly mistakes will be a huge factor in determining the outcome of this game since the Pats own the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense, rank third against the pass, and have a league-high 19 interceptions.
Key Injury
This news might go unnoticed by a lot of folks, but not those who have anything to do with New England’s defense. Safety Kyle Dugger was placed on the COVID list earlier in the week and his absence on Monday would be a significant blow to the stop unit. Dugger leads the Pats in tackles and is a big part of their successful nickel package. Dugger has been on the field for over 81 percent of defensive snaps with 73 tackles and three interceptions. He’s done a nice job limiting the role of opponent’s slot receivers while also defending players out of the backfield. His absence will allow Allen and the Bills some flexibility in the passing game.
Key Stat
As I mentioned above part of New England’s success on defense has to do with their ability to create turnovers, interceptions mostly. They lead the NFL with 19 picks, three more than the Bills, and their plus-10 turnover margin is second-best in the league. Cornerback J.C. Jackson is the biggest ball hawk in the secondary with seven picks, one off the NFL lead, and four players have multiple interceptions. Twice this season the Pats have intercepted four passes in a game and 14 of their total have come in the past seven games. With Allen tossing picks like a free T-shirt giveaway, the Pats have a chance to slow down Buffalo’s offense.
Free ATS Pick
After waiting so long to win a division title the Bills aren’t going to give it up without a fight. They’ve been overlooked with New England’s rise to prominence and they have an opportunity to get back to the top of the division standings with a win. Buffalo’s defense is fairly stout and the top two teams in fewest points allowed forced the total down to a ridiculously low 42. Valuing the football is the first step for the Bills and that starts with Allen. I expect he’ll rise to the occasion in the big setting leading the Bills to a payout victory.
NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills -2.5 / OVER 42
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