Battered, bruised and ravaged by the injury bug, Anthony Lynn’s Los Angeles Chargers close a two game road trip out in “The Big Easy” on Monday Night Football when they lock horns with the New Orleans Saints for the first time since the 2016 NFL betting season. The Bolts really let one get away at Tampa Bay last week by coughing up a 24-7 second quarter lead and needing to hold on for dear life just to cover the closing 7.5-point NFL odds. Sean Payton’s squad looked destined to drop a third straight after falling behind 14-0 in the Motor City, but in true Detroit Lions fashion Matt Patricia’s troops buckled under the pressure which afforded the Saints the opportunity to pull out the comeback win which is exactly what they did. Linemakers expect New Orleans to climb over .500 in this one with the Saints currently 8-point favorites and the total set at 51.
Watch this regular season NFL Week 5 matchup on Monday, October 12, 2020, at 7:15 p.m. ET from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. You can bet on NFL odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Los Angeles Chargers +8
New Orleans Saints -8
Over/Under 51
Odds Analysis
New Orleans initially hit the betting board as 7.5-point favorites with the O/U set at 52. The betting markets have hitched their collective wagon to the Saints and over in early wagering. Unlike last Monday night when sportsbooks found themselves rooting for both favorites, that likely won’t be the case this time around with upwards of 61 percent of the betting handle laying the chalk with the home team. Surprisingly, the action has only moved the number to beat a half-point which suggests some respected sharp money has taken the points with the Chargers. With the average amount of points being scored only increasing every passing week, it’s unexpected to see the O/U down a full point since the open especially considering 54 percent of the bets taken thus far have come in support of a high scorer playing out. Looks like the sharp money likes the under in this one as well!
Injury Report
The Chargers won’t be at full strength for this one. Not after RB Austin Ekeler suffered a gruesome knee and hamstring injury last week that will keep him out until the middle of November at the earliest. Also likely to miss this game will be WR Mike Williams who was held out of last week’s game at Tampa Bay with a hamstring injury of his own. Adding to the Chargers injury woes is OT Bryan Bulaga who also missed the game against the Bucs due to a back injury. That’s not good news for rookie RB Joshua Kelley or veteran change-of-pace back Justin Jackson who figure to split the carries against a stout Saints run defense ranked No. 7 in the league that allows an average of 97.5 rushing yards per game. As for New Orleans, Michael Thomas is expected to return from his high ankle sprain, but it remains to be seen how back to form he’ll be. It took Saquon Barkley a month-plus to get reacclimated from the same injury last season. It’s also unknown as to whether Marshon Lattimore or Janoris Jenkins will be back in the secondary after missing last week’s game in Detroit. That could end up being great news for rookie QB Justin Herbert who’s really opened some eyes since taking over the QB1 job a few weeks back.
Matchup to Watch
Regardless of whether Thomas is a go, the Bolts ability to have a shot at competing as a road dog for the second straight week will ultimately depend on how the defense deals with Alvin Kamara. Drew Brees doesn’t have nearly the arm strength he once did, so a bulk of the Saints passing offense depends on dump-offs and screens devised for No. 41. Kamara is currently the best running back in the game having combined for 557 yards and 7 TD. The Chargers concede over 110 rushing yards per game (No. 14) at 4.5 yards per carry (No. 20). Most importantly, the 33 receptions allowed to running backs out of the backfield are tied with Atlanta for the second most in the league. While they only gave up 199 yards on those passes, LA has surrendered a pair of touchdowns to the position. With that, it looks like AK is going to have himself another big game once again being the focal point of the offensive attack. Though they’ll likely be chalky, you should still take a peek at his player props to see if any are worthwhile of investing in; especially his receiving yards and anytime touchdown offerings.
Free ATS Pick
So I took the points with the Chargers last week and came away pretty pleased with the end results regardless of the endgame being of the white-knuckled variety. However, the end results were kind of fluky. Tampa Bay outgained Los Angeles 484-324 and out-first downed them 28-15. On top of that, the Bolts defense allowed Ronald Jones to rush for over 100 yards and average 5.5 YPC which helped the Buccaneers own a decided 10-minute advantage in the time of possession battle. Twenty-one of the Chargers 31 points were scored on a pick-six as well as 53 and 72-yard TD strikes through the air. The offensive outburst came as quite the surprise after LA averaged just 18 points in the two games started by Herbert previously. I don’t think this one plays out well for the Chargers. New Orleans will no doubt make it a point to come out strong after being forced to battle back last week, and I’m not sold on either Kelley or Jackson being able to tote the mail effectively against the Saints defense. If Herbert goes out and throws rainmakers for scores once again, so be it – I’ll be betting heavily against it happening.
NFL Pick: Saints 30, Chargers 17
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