Two of the top teams in the AFC will meet a few days later than regularly scheduled, as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Buffalo Bills on Monday. This game will take place earlier than normal, with a 5 p.m. Eastern Time start and it will be shown on FOX and NFL Network. The Chiefs and Bills are coming off their first loss of the season, as the Chiefs were upset by the Raiders, while the Bills were routed by the Titans. It could be a high scoring game, as each team is averaging over 27 points per game. Let’s look at the Monday matchup and NFL picks. Watch this regular season NFL Week 6 matchup on Monday, October 19, 2020, at 5:00 p.m. ET from Bills Stadium.
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NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
Buffalo Bills +3.5
Over/Under 57.5
Odds Analysis
The odds on this matchup have not really moved since their opening. The Chiefs have bounced around from a 3.5 to 4-point favorite, while the total has been pretty stead at 57.5. There is no real appeal to bettors to take the Bills plus the points, as the public rarely likes to bet against the Chiefs. If anything, this line could go to 4 and the total could go higher.
Injury Report
The only significant injury of note for the Chiefs is the one to wide receiver Sammy Watkins. He will miss Monday’s game due to a hamstring injury.
Buffalo has a lot more injuries of note that could impact Monday’s game. The Bills badly need wide receiver John Brown, but he is listed as questionable with a calf injury. They also need cornerback Tre’Davious White who is listed as questionable with a back injury.
Matchup to Watch
Keep an eye on the injury report in advance of Monday’s game. The Bills secondary is not capable of slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs unless Tre’Davious White is in the lineup. White didn’t play against the Titans and Buffalo couldn’t stop Tennessee’s passing attack. There is a big difference between Tennessee’s passing and Kansas City’s passing, so the Bills will need White to have any chance of containing Mahomes.
Game Trends
The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. The Chiefs are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. The Under is 5-0 in the Chiefs last 5 road games. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Bills last 5 games overall. The Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in this series.
Free ATS Pick
The Chiefs will come into this game with more rest since the Bills just played on Tuesday. The Bills did not play well against Tennessee and normally I would expect Buffalo to bounce back with a good game. The problem with taking the Bills is that you have to believe they can stop Mahomes and Kansas City and I don’t think they can. I am never thrilled about being on the same side as the public, but I have to take the Chiefs in this one. I will also hedge a little bit and also take the game over the total.
NFL Pick: Chiefs 34, Titans 27
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