Two surprise teams will meet in the Wild Card round on Saturday when the Las Vegas Raiders visit the AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals. Just a month ago the Raiders were a longshot to reach the postseason following their 48-9 loss to Kansas City. But oh my how things can change. Winning their last four games by a combined total of 12 points, Vegas snared the final playoff spot on the last play of Sunday night’s game against the Chargers. To say they’ve been living on the edge is an understatement. The Bengals rested some starters in their Week 18 loss to Cleveland and they are a 6-point favorite to win their first playoff game since the 1990 season.
This NFL Wild Card playoff matchup will take place on Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 4:30 p.m. ET at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Las Vegas Raiders +6
Cincinnati Bengals -6
Total 49.5
Odds Analysis
Cincinnati hit the board as a 6.5-point favorite with the number quickly wagered down to -6. We didn’t expect the Bengals to be contending for a playoff spot in the rugged AFC North, but they clinched the division a few weeks ago and used the final week as a bye ahead of their first postseason berth since 2015. With key players out of the lineup it wasn’t a surprise to see them lose to the Browns on Sunday. The Bengals stayed within the 6.5-point spread earning their fourth straight payout. They ended the regular season 10-7 ATS. A loss in any of their final four games would have ended the Raiders postseason hopes. So, they didn’t lose. All four were nail-biters with the Raiders getting three game-winning field goals from Daniel Carlson in that stretch and getting payouts in each of their last three games. Two of those wins came on the road where the Raiders went 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. The total surfaced at 49.5.
Player to Watch
The word playoff hasn’t been a part of the Raiders vocabulary and it’s something Derek Carr has never experienced in his NFL career. For just the second time since their Super Bowl run in 2002 the Raiders are in the postseason. Back in 2016 they finished 12-4 and qualified as a wild card. But Carr was injured in the next to last regular season game and didn’t play in the Raiders 27-14 loss to Houston. He’s getting his first postseason action, though the last four weeks were playoff games in a way. Carr threw for 186 yards and two touchdowns in the win over the Chargers giving him a franchise single-season record 4,804 yards. And for the first time in five games he didn’t throw an interception. He did throw a career-high 14 interceptions and was sacked 40 times, and the playoffs are a different animal especially when playing on the road.
Last Meeting
We can’t go off what happened previously between the teams but both will look at their Week 11 matchup with different perspectives. The Bengals prevailed in that game 32-13 earning the payout as a 2.5-point favorite. And they did it without Joe Burrow going off. Burrow was an efficient 20 of 29 for 148 yards and a touchdown while Joe Mixon did a bulk of the damage running the ball. Mixon amassed 123 yards and two TDs on 30 rush attempts and the Bengals total 159 yards on the ground.
Cincy’s defense did a number holding the Raiders to just 278 total yards while forcing a pair of turnovers. That decisive victory came after the Bengals bye week and they won five of their next seven games to clinch the AFC North title. While they played last week, the Bengals made their intentions known early that a number of starters would not play in the regular season finale and they didn’t. So the circumstances are a bit similar in that regard, but the Raiders have turned things around since that loss. They went 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS after that game winning their final four games to close the season.
Free ATS Pick
It’s the most unlikely wild card matchup but it should be a good one between teams starving for playoff success. The Raiders haven’t won a playoff game since the 2002 season and are making just their second postseason appearance since then. The drought’s been even longer for the Bengals. I have to say Cincy’s offense can be a bitch with Burrow tossing the ball to three talented receivers. If he gets protection and doesn’t turn the ball over the Bengals can score a lot of points. And I feel like the Raiders’ luck over the last month is going to run out against a solid opponent.
NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6 / OVER 49.5
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