The Cleveland Browns enter the fourth season with former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 draft pick Baker Mayfield under center. The franchise has experienced incremental success ever since he took over the QB1 reins back in 2018-19. After going 0-16 the prior campaign to land his services, Cleveland would go on to post a 7-8-1 record his rookie season to surpass a 6-game win total at online sportsbooks. The following season, the Browns took a step back managing just six wins in a season marred by injuries and coaching ineptitude. Unsurprisingly, it grossly failed to surpass its 9-game win total. Upper management immediately cleaned house and brought in an entirely new coaching staff. Overlooked by Kevin Stefanski, the identity of the franchise really took shape. Cleveland would go on to win 11 regular season games by way of a punishing ground attack and fortunate defensive play to smash its 9.5-game win total and win a playoff game for the first time since 1994. With the defense retooled and the offense returning a bulk of last year’s key contributors, the arrow is pointed way up which has the “Dawg Pound” – and futures bettors for that matter - eagerly awaiting Week 1’s kick-off against last season’s runner-ups.
Cleveland Browns Season Win Total: 10.5 Under -120
For the first time since 1995 – the final season in Cleveland before the rebirth in ’99 – the Browns are owners of a double-digit season win total. It initially hit the board at 9.5 matching last season’s impost, but has since been bet up a full game to 10.5 due to the moves made to shore up the roster in both the draft and free agency. Though decided vig is currently attached to the under, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone looking to bet the Browns under right now with it the current +119 favorite to win the AFC North, a 7-1 underdog to win the AFC and sitting only behind the Rams, Bills, Bucs and Chiefs on the odds to win Super Bowl LVI +1462.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds at BookMaker
Cleveland Browns Football Schedule
Week 1: Browns at Chiefs, Sunday, September 12, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 2: Texans at Browns, Sunday, September 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: Bears at Browns, Sunday, September 26, 8:20 p.m. ET
Week 4: Browns at Vikings, Sunday, October 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 5: Browns at Chargers, Sunday, October 10, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 6: Cardinals at Browns, Sunday, October 17, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 7: Broncos at Browns, Thursday, October 21, 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Week 8: Steelers at Browns, Sunday, October 31, 1 p.m. ET
Week 9: Browns at Bengals, Sunday, November 7, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: Browns at Patriots, Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: Lions at Browns, Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: Browns at Ravens, Sunday, November 28, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 13: Bye Week
Week 14: Ravens at Browns, Sunday, December 12, 1 p.m. ET
Week 15: Raiders at Browns, Sunday, December 19, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 16: Browns at Packers, Saturday, December 25, 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Week 17: Browns at Steelers, Monday, January 3, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 18: Bengals at Browns, Sunday, January 9, 1 p.m. ET
Cleveland Browns Season Win Total Analysis
I was bullish on the Browns making noise last season and backed that opinion up by hitting the over of their season win total. They went on to surpass the impost in Week 15 against the Giants on the road, but would’ve turned the trick the previous week if not for Lamar Jackson’s late-game heroics on Monday Night Football. Along with taking on all divisional opposition, Cleveland will run up against the NFC North and AFC West with standalone games coming against the Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots. The schedule strength rates out as the second easiest in the league per the folks at Sharp Football Stats, but I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that it will be much tougher than expected. Even so, I believe the Browns are at a point in the rebuild that they’ll be able to handle their business against any and all opposition. Still, it’s highly conceivable for the team to have already suffered three losses through the first six weeks with Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona on the docket.
With one of the best 1-2 backfield punches going in the NFL paired with a passing attack that should only improve with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. back in the huddle, Cleveland’s offense should take another step forward in 2021-22. The end results should show improvement in both total and scoring offense outputs. The Achilles heel of last season’s team came on the other side of the ball. While the defense owned the league’s ninth best turnover differential, it still allowed better than 26 points per game No. 21 and only registered 38 total sacks No. 16. There should be improvement in both areas with the additions of Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Walker and John Johnson III in free agency and stud NW CB Greg Newsome in the draft. Should it all come together, Cleveland could challenge the Chiefs for the best overall record in the AFC! Ultimately that will depend on whether they can avenge that playoff defeat in Kansas City to kick off the season.
Cleveland Browns Season Win Total Prediction: Over 10.5
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