If you’re a fan of the Dallas Cowboys, don’t read anything into the preseason results. The Boys went winless in their four tune-up games and scored just 43 points total. The offense struggled because Dak Prescott played four series and Ezekiel Elliott never touched the field. And the last time the Cowboys failed to win a preseason game, they went 12-4 and won the NFC East title in 2014. For the first time since 2002 the Cowboys open a season without Jason Witten on the roster with a Week 1 visit to the Carolina Panthers.
This contest in Week 1 of the NFL regular season will go down Sunday, September 9, 2018, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dallas Cowboys +3
Carolina Panthers -3
Over/Under 42.5
Odds Analysis
The line has remained constant since opening at Carolina -2.5. Early money on the home team forced a swing to -3 and the Panthers are still receiving two-thirds of the action. Don’t let the preseason numbers fool you, the Cowboys are a strong team and the points are a gift. The under is getting a lot of play on a total that has dropped to 42.5 after opening at 44.
Injury Report
Travis Frederick – Considered to have the best offensive line in the NFL a few seasons ago, the Cowboys will be without its leader after Frederick was diagnosed with Guillain-Barre Syndrome. The team elected to keep the Pro Bowl center on the roster despite not having a timeline for his possible return. A first-round pick in 2013, Frederick will miss the first game of his career on opening day. Along with fellow first-rounders Tyron Smith and Zack Martin, the line helped Elliott rush for a team rookie record 1,631 yards in 2016. Joe Looney takes over as the starter with Adam Redmond claimed off waivers to add depth.
Thomas Davis – A fixture on the Panthers defense since 2005, Davis announced that the 2018 season would be his last. The farewell tour will be shortened after he was suspended four games by the league. Davis, Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson form one of the better linebacker groups in the NFL and it is the strongest position on the team. David Mayo will slide into the starting role in place of Davis.
Matchup to Watch
Carolina has concerns of its own along the offensive line with three projected starters likely out for the opener. And the Cowboys will look to take advantage with a defensive front that includes sack leader Demarcus Lawrence. Matt Kalil, Daryl Williams and Amini Silatolu are all dealing with injuries that will prevent them from playing on Sunday and the Panthers kept 10 linemen on the 53-man roster.
Lawrence had a monster year in 2017 with 14.5 sacks and the return of Randy Gregory, along with the development of Taco Charlton gives coordinator Rod Marinelli his best group of pass rushers since he’s been with Dallas. Cam Newton may avoid sacks with his escapability, but he will be under constant pressure from a quick, athletic group of Cowboys linemen.
Key Stat
Over his two-year career, Elliott is averaging 104.6 rushing yards per game and nearly reached the 1,000-yard mark last season despite missing six games. The fleet-footed back will be relied on more heavily in an offense that lacks a true No. 1 receiving option now that Witten and Dez Bryant are no longer on the team.
Zeke will be fresh after not playing a snap during the preseason, and he’ll operate behind a line that’s missing Pro Bowl center Frederick. Still, the Cowboys will be a run-oriented team and Elliott’s presence will only help the play of Prescott, who struggled without his sidekick last year. And getting yards could be easier without Davis on Carolina’s second level.
Free ATS Pick
Both teams have key pieces missing on the offensive line and that could lead to a low-scoring game. However, Newton and Prescott have the ability to make things happen and Christian McCaffrey will duel with Zeke in the running game. The Dallas defense is going to be better than most expect and the front will contain Cam and McCaffrey for the most part.
Big plays are there for the taking with the talent on offense and I can see this game playing over a relatively low total. The Cowboys will let Zeke run and Dak will take his shots when he can. The strategy worked well two years ago and it will in the opener, leading the visitors to an upset road victory.
NFL Betting Odds: Cowboys 24, Panthers 20
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