During a rough first season as coach of the Dallas Cowboys Mike McCarthy was on the hot seat after his team went 6-10 and missed the playoffs. The NFL is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately profession and McCarthy changed the fortunes putting his team on the verge of its first NFC East title since 2018. The Cowboys can clinch the title and a playoff berth with a win over division rival Washington Football Team when the clubs square off in the Week 16 edition of Sunday Night Football. Just a few weeks earlier the Cowboys put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division by beating the team formerly known as the Redskins 27-20 behind a relentless defense. The Cowboys were favored in that game and they are even bigger favorites this week laying 11 points on the NFL betting line.
This regular season Week 16 matchup will take place on Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 8:20 p.m. ET at ATT Stadium in Arlington, TX and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Washington Football Team +11
Dallas Cowboys -11
Total 47.5
Odds Analysis
Injuries and COVID did a number on the Football Team last week putting several players on the shelf while also forcing their game against Philadelphia to be rescheduled to Tuesday. That doesn’t give Washington much time to prepare and they still don’t know who’s doing the prep work. As a result most of the action has been on the Cowboys moving them from a 9.5-point favorite to -11 on the NFL betting line. Dallas won and covered in Washington in Week 14 and is 3-0 SU and ATS over its past three games. The Boys have been a solid bet this season going 11-3 ATS but they are just 1-2 SU and ATS in their previous three home games.
Player to Watch
The Cowboys have one of the top offenses in the NFL ranking first in total yards with 403.3 per game and second in scoring at 28.6 points per outing. Yet they’ve been a little off over the past several games leading some to question Dak Prescott. Winning their last three games hasn’t been a product of the offense. They won those games by not scoring more than 27 points and with a passing game that’s struggled. Prescott has fewer than 240 passing yards in every contest with as many interceptions (3) as touchdown passes in that span while getting sacked seven times in the past two games.
The play from the offense hasn’t been a concern with the guys on the other side of the football stepping up, but this group can and should be doing much more. It helped that the ground game was better in last week’s win over the Giants. Tony Pollard rushed for 74 yards on 12 carries and the Cowboys totaled 125 yards. And the Cowboys have had issues in the red zone, too. They scored two touchdowns in five red zone trips last week and were just 1 of 6 inside the Washington 20-yard line in Week 14.
Key Stat
It seems like I talk about it every week, but turnovers are a huge deal in the NFL. The top-six teams in turnover margin are all currently in a playoff spot with several of them still looking to capture the No. 1 seed in their conference. One of those teams is Dallas, which is tied for the second best margin in the league at plus-12. And it’s been quite a swing with the Boys ending last season with a negative margin. Takeaways played a major role in the three-game winning streak with Dallas forcing four turnovers in each game. Led by Trevon Diggs with 10 the Cowboys lead the NFL with 23 interceptions and their 31 takeaways are tied with Indianapolis for the most. Diggs’ 10th pick was one three off Mike Glennon last week. The week prior they recovered three Washington fumbles in the 27-20 victory.
Free ATS Pick
There are no moral victories in the NFL and the fact that Washington played hard with a depleted roster in a 10-point loss to Philly on Tuesday only means they are that much closer to being eliminated from the postseason. What it does tell us is that despite who straps on the pads the Football Team is going to be a tough out. They play hard and showed that a few weeks ago when coming back from a 24-0 deficit against Dallas. A defensive touchdown made the final score closer but they don’t have the weapons to play a shootout. And the offense could be impacted by the absence of QBs Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen. In their place on Tuesday Garrett Gilbert got the nod and the struggles continued. Washington will have to score to cover the line and I don’t know where those points are coming from.
NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys -11 / UNDER 47.5
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