Dalvin Cook has proven to be one of the best running backs in the NFL over the last two seasons. The former Florida State star was taken by Minnesota in the second round of the 2017 NFL Draft, and the Vikings have been happy with his production. After dealing with injuries his rookie season and only playing four games, Cook ran for 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns in 14 games in 2019. His 2020 campaign was even better, as Cook rattled off 1,557 yards and 16 touchdowns. He immediately rewarded the Vikings for signing him to a five-year, $63 million extension last September, and he has a good chance of leading the NFL in rushing in 2021.
Dalvin Cook Regular Season Rushing Yards
Over 1399.5 -116
Under 1399.5 -108
This is one of the highest totals for any running back in the NFL. However, that is deserved as Cook ran for the second-most yards in the league last season behind 2,000-yard back Derrick Henry. Cook was on an island as he finished 470 yards behind Henry, but he was almost 400 yards ahead of the NFL’s third leading rusher in 2020 (Jonathan Taylor).
Health is always a concern for running backs, and that’s particularly the case with Dalvin Cook. The talented runner missed games during his time at FSU due to injury, and he has yet to play more than 14 games in a season during his four years in the NFL. Cook tore his ACL in his rookie year in 2017 and missed 12 games, and he missed five games with a hamstring injury in 2018.
That led to Minnesota drafting a quality back-up in 2019 when the Vikings took Alexander Mattison in the third round of the NFL Draft. Mattison has been very good in limited action during his time in the NFL. As a rookie, the Boise State alum ran for 462 yards and averaged 4.6 YPC. He posted nearly the same stat line in 2020, running for 434 yards while averaging 4.5 YPC.
Those are all good reasons to take the under, but what about the offensive line? Minnesota has had a solid group of hogs up front for a number of seasons, yet there is reason to be worried about the offensive line in 2021.
The Vikings used a first-round pick and a third-round pick on offensive linemen, but neither player is currently listed as a starter. That’s very disappointing as Christian Darrisaw was projected to be an immediate starter at left tackle, and Wyatt Davis was thought to be in the mix to start at guard.
This offensive line figures to be solid, but the Vikings are very young up front and don’t have a star outside of center Garrett Bradbury. All those factors lead toward an under bet for Cook here.
Dalvin Cook Regular Season Rushing and Receiving Touchdowns
Over 14.5 -112
Under 14.5 -112
What about touchdowns? Dalvin Cook has shown a nose for the end zone during his time in the NFL. He ran for 13 touchdowns in 2019 and 16 touchdowns in 2020, so this number looks to be on the mark. A 17-game schedule will certainly help Cook in his quest to finish with at least 15 touchdowns, but his lack of red zone touches as a receiver hurts those chances.
Cook has 148 receptions during his four seasons in the league, and his role in the passing game has grown since his rookie year. However, he has just three touchdown receptions as he is largely used as a dump-off option when Cousins is in trouble.
Will Dalvin Cook Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards?
Yes +550
Dalvin Cook is in a situation where he could lead the league in rushing. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak looks to be a run-first OC, and the Vikings have liked to run to set up the pass since Kevin Stefanski was calling the plays.
Unfortunately, injuries are too much of a concern for Cook. He is unlikely to play all 17 games, and Mattison will likely see more action in order to make sure Cook stays as healthy as possible.
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