The best running back in the NFL is looking to become the first running back since Emmitt Smith to lead the league in rushing for three consecutive seasons. Derrick Henry has been awfully impressive throughout the course of his career. Henry became the all-time leading national rusher in high school by running for over 12,000 yards at tiny Yulee HS north of Jacksonville. He went on to excel at Alabama, winning the Heisman Trophy as a junior after running for 2,219 yards and 28 touchdowns.
Henry entered the draft early and was taken in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans. We didn’t see a ton out of Henry his first two years in the league, but he broke the 1,000-yard plateau in 2018 and has been sensational in each of the last two seasons. In 2019, Henry became the NFL’s leading rusher in Week 17 and finished the year with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns. He made history in 2020 by becoming just the eighth player in NFL history to run for over 2,000 yards in a season, so now everyone is wondering what he will do for an encore.
Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing Yards
Over 1550.5 +103
Under 1550.5 -131
Perhaps the most impressive thing about Derrick Henry has been his ability to avoid major injury. Henry racked up a ton of carries (almost 1,400) in high school, and he became a workhorse back at Alabama. His load increased substantially in each subsequent season with Henry carrying the ball a whopping 395 times during his final year with the Crimson Tide.
Since entering the league in 2016, Henry has missed just two games. He is a downhill bruiser at 6’3 and 247 pounds, but he consistently gives out more punishment than he receives from defenders. There were concerns over whether his ability to carry the load and break tackles would transfer to the NFL, but he has answered those questions in the affirmative with resounding performances.
Henry’s production has risen substantially each season he has been in the league. What’s made it all the more impressive is that Henry has been more effective the more he has gotten the ball over the last three seasons, as he is wearing down defenses over the course of the game. In 2018, Henry carried the ball 215 times and averaged 4.9 YPC. His carries rose to 303 in 2019, yet he averaged 5.1 YPC. His best performance yet came last year when Henry ran the ball 378 times and still managed to average a career-best 5.4 YPC.
Unlike other teams that give their top backs some rest, Henry has proven to be so resilient that head coach Mike Vrabel simply lets him carry the load. No other player on the Titans carried the ball more than 50 times in 2020, and that might be the case again as long as Henry continues to stay healthy.
Although Henry might eventually suffer a major injury, it hasn’t happened yet, making the over a great bet given Tennessee’s offensive philosophy. Vrabel wants to run as much as possible, and that helps set up Ryan Tannehill on play action. Additionally, Tennessee plays in the weakest division in the NFL, and Henry can run over Houston and Jacksonville.
Derrick Henry Regular Season Rushing and Receiving Touchdowns
Over 14.5 -112
Under 14.5 -112
If you like the over in terms of yards, the over in terms of touchdowns is probably a good bet too. Derrick Henry ran for more than 15 touchdowns in each of the last two years, and his ability to wear down defenses leads to late scores for King Henry often.
This offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. Tennessee knows where it’s bread is buttered, so the Titans continue to invest in this unit. That will help Henry in his quest to get to 15 touchdowns.
Will Derrick Henry Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards?
Yes +400
It’s clear that Derrick Henry is in the best position to lead the NFL in rushing in 2021. Henry has been the best back in the league for two straight seasons, and he figures to make it three if he is on the field for at least 15 games.
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