Winning eight of their last 10 games kept the Detroit Lions in playoff contention until the final weekend of the 2022 season. Finishing with nine victories and their first winning record since 2017 raised expectations in the Motor City and Coach of the Year candidate Dan Campbell has changed the culture. That doesn’t mean squat until the results occur on the field and oddsmakers have the Lions with a win total of 9.5. That means Detroit needs 10 victories to cash the OVER, something they’ve done just twice in the last 27 seasons.
If the Lions are to make the leap and hit double figures in wins for the first time since claiming 11 victories in 2014, there has to be some improvement on the defensive side of the football. No team gave up more yards per play than Detroit putting them last in the NFL in total defense. And only three teams allowed more points per game.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Detroit Lions 2023 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Lions Over 9.5 Wins -115
Lions Under 9.5 Wins -101
As good as the Lions were at the end of the 2022 season winning eight times in their final 10 outings, they were equally bad over the first seven weeks going just 1-6. That makes us wonder just what version we’re going to get in 2023. The torrid finish didn’t prevent management and the coaching staff from making changes to the roster. Some important pieces were let go including top draft pick from a few years ago CB Jeff Okudah, DeAndre Swift and DJ Chark. The latter two helped the Lions average 380 yards, the fourth-most in the NFL.
In an attempt to bolster the confidence of Jared Goff, Dan Campbell recently stated his signal-caller is better now than he was in Los Angeles, even though he led the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018. The Lions have so much confidence in Goff that they went and drafted Hendon Hooker with the first of their two third-round picks. Goff had a solid season throwing for 4,438 yards and 29 TDs with a career-low seven interceptions. The Lions scored 30 or more points eight times to rank fifth with an average of 26.6 points. The number was impacted by five games of 20 or fewer points. Adding Marvin Jones Jr. to a receiving corps that includes Amon-Ra St. Brown should help the passing game.
Stocking up on defenders in the draft in recent years is a process that could pay off handsomely. Aidan Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks in his rookie season and 2023 pick Jack Campbell is slated to start. After surrendering a bunch of yards through the air the Lions remade the secondary adding corners Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley along with safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Any improvement on that side of the ball will be welcomed.
2023 Detroit Lions Schedule
Week 1: at Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday, September 7, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 2: vs. Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, September 17, 1 p.m. ET
Week 3: vs. Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, September 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: at Green Bay Packers, Thursday, September 28, 8:15 p.m. ET
Week 5: vs. Carolina Panthers, Sunday, October 8, 1 p.m. ET
Week 6: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, October 15, 1 p.m. ET
Week 7: at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, October 22, 1 p.m. ET
Week 8: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Monday, October 30, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 9: BYE WEEK
Week 10: at Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, November 12, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 11: vs. Chicago Bears, Sunday, November 19, 1 p.m. ET
Week 12: vs. Green Bay Packers, Thursday, November 23, 12:30 p.m. ET
Week 13: at New Orleans Saints, Sunday, December 3, 1 p.m. ET
Week 14: at Chicago Bears, Sunday, December 10, 1 p.m. ET
Week 15: vs. Denver Broncos, Saturday, December 16 (TBA)
Week 16: at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, December 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: at Dallas Cowboys, Saturday, December 30, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, January 7 (TBA)
One positive for the Lions is the state of the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers out of Green Bay and the Vikings in flux, the division is theirs for the taking. Detroit went 5-1 against their rivals last season with the only setback by four points to Minnesota in Week 3. Opening on Thursday night at Kansas City will tell us a lot about the Lions as will a stretch just before the finale when they play four of five games on the road against NFC foes New Orleans, Chicago, Minnesota and Dallas. I think a lot has to go right for the Lions to win 10 games making the safe wager on the UNDER.
NFL Odds: Detroit Lions UNDER 9.5 Wins
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