Homefield advantage has meant everything in the NFL Playoffs over the last five years. The No. 1 seed in the AFC has gone on to make the Super Bowl in each of the last five seasons, while the No. 1 seed in the NFC has made it to the grand finale in four of the last five. That puts the teams that won on Wildcard Weekend at a significant disadvantage, and they will be out to make some new history this weekend. Now, let’s look at the totals for all four games.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Under 57
The Chiefs had one of the best offenses in NFL history during the regular season, and Pat Mahomes II showed the world that he is the future of the quarterback position. His gun-slinging mentality reminds people of Brett Favre, but he has more athleticism than the legendary quarterback.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, there is the nagging problem of Andy Reid’s tendency to go very conservative in the postseason. Reid has tried to minimize risk in his four previous postseason appearances with the Chiefs, taking the air out of the ball and primarily focusing on the short passing game. That has led to a 1-4 record and much worse numbers for his offense than during the regular season.
Kansas City will be facing a good defense here too. Indianapolis had one of the top ten defenses in the NFL, and the Colts’ defense is very fast. They can mitigate Tyreek Hill’s speed more than other teams, and Darius Leonard will provide a check on Mahomes. That should lead to the under cashing here.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys Under 49.5
Normally, I go with the advanced metrics, but I’m leaning the other way here. While the Cowboys had a top ten defenses according to DVOA this season, the Rams were in the bottom half of the league.
I’m of the mindset that many of the Rams defenders will take their games to another level now that the postseason is upon us. Dallas does not have a receiver that can consistently get open, so the Rams can focus on stopping the run and making the Cowboys one-dimensional.
On the other side of the coin, we know the Rams can have some problems on offense if you shut down Todd Gurley. Gurley is the best running back in the NFL, so that’s easier said than done, but the Cowboys have a very good defensive line that should limit his effectiveness.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers Over 45.5
This game will feature two of the oldest quarterbacks to ever take part in a playoff game. Philip Rivers and Tom Brady are both long in the tooth, but they have thrived in the NFL’s current climate. Each quarterback threw for well over 4,000 yards this season, and both of these offenses were ranked in the top five in the league in DVOA.
We know how the Patriots are when given time to prepare too. Bill Belichick and this coaching staff will find ways to pick apart opponents, and Brady and company will move the ball against a good Chargers defense.
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Over 50.5
These teams met two months ago, and the Saints shredded the Saints defense. New Orleans was able to total 500 yards of offense and ran and passed with ease in a 48-7 demolition of Philadelphia.
The Eagles have looked better on defense since that beatdown, but the secondary is still a patchwork unit. Injuries have really limited what they can do, and Drew Brees will be able to take advantage.
Philly’s offense should be better this time around though. The offensive line performed much better over the last six games of the regular season, and they were instrumental in keeping Nick Foles upright in a narrow win over Chicago. The Eagles will find more success through the air to push this game over.
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