The Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in a game that can be seen on CBS. It is a must-win situation for the Dolphins who can clinch a Wild Card spot with a victory, while the game is relatively meaningless for Buffalo. The question in this game is whether or not the Bills will play their starters. That decision will definitely affect the odds one way or another. Let’s look at the matchup and NFL picks.
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NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +1
Buffalo Bills -1
Total 44.5
Odds Analysis
Sportsbooks have kind of taken the middle position as to whether Buffalo plays their starters, as the line on this game is listed with the Bills a 1-point favorite. They may have to rethink that position, as news came out that Pittsburgh is not going to play Ben Roethlisberger and some other starters in their game against Cleveland. That is important because the Bills will clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC if the Steelers lose. That would make their game against Miami meaningless. Could the Browns lose to a Pittsburgh team playing mainly backups? The answer is yes, but it seems unlikely. Perhaps the Bills will put their starters in to begin the game and then pull them at the half.
Injury Report
The Dolphins are hoping to get wide receiver DeVante Parker and defensive end Shaq Lawson back for this game on Sunday. Both players are very important and their return would boost Miami’s chances. The Dolphins defense took a hit, as linebacker Elandon Roberts suffered a knee injury and will not play.
On the other side, we know that wide receiver Cole Beasley is unlikely to play on Sunday, as the Bills won’t want to risk him aggravating his leg injury.
Key Questions
Will Buffalo play their starters on Sunday? Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott had not announced his plans as of this writing. Miami head coach Brian Flores is going with the assumption that the Buffalo starters will play. “I expect everyone to play,” he said. “Sean’s a competitor, Brian Daboll’s a competitor. Josh Allen, Diggs ... I expect them all to play.” Flores said to the media, “That’s how we’re preparing.”
The most likely scenario is that the Buffalo starters will play a couple of series and then be pulled, especially if Cleveland gets out to a lead against Pittsburgh.
The other question that Flores will have to answer is who starts at quarterback on Sunday. It looks like Tua Tagovailoa will get the start, but he has already been pulled twice this season in the fourth quarter in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick. “I have a lot of peace with the decisions that I, that we make, because it’s sincerely, genuinely, authentically based on winning football games,” Flores said to the media, “.... It’s important to me that we do everything we can to win football games.”
Game Trends
The Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Buffalo. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the AFC East. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. The Under is 4-1 in the Dolphins last 5 vs. the AFC East. The Over is 6-2 in the Bills last 8 vs. the AFC East. The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Buffalo.
Free ATS Pick
The Bills would be foolish to play their starters in a game that really has limited meaning, especially now that Pittsburgh will be resting their starters. The Bills may play their starters for a couple series, but it would be shocking to see them play the entire game. This is a game that Miami has to win and I think they will get the job done.
NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Bills 13
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