The results this preseason have not been positive for either side, so it’s a good thing the games don’t count. But the struggles have to be alarming nonetheless. The Atlanta Falcons have played without Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones, so their poor offensive numbers aren’t a complete surprise. The Miami Dolphins have rested some of their regulars as well, but they haven’t been able to do anything. The two sides enter the Week 4 preseason game winless and one will come away with a victory, which could be a springboard into the regular season.
This contest in Week 4 of the preseason will go down Thursday, August 30, 2018, at 7 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +2.5
Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Over/Under 36.5
Odds Analysis
Home field advantage typically means plenty in the preseason, and not surprisingly the Falcons opened as a 2.5-point favorite. Both teams have struggled going 0-3 SU and ATS, but the belief is that the Falcons have the personnel to change the narrative once the regular season starts. The total opened at 36.5.
Quarterback Rotation
The Dolphins are still searching for some clarity at the backup quarterback spot and the competition between Brock Osweiler and David Fales will be determined on Thursday. Fales has been the better player during practices, but that hasn’t translated to game days. He completed 5 of 10 for 63 yards with an interception against the Ravens, opening the door for Osweiler.
Osweiler didn’t take advantage of the opportunity given him. He was 5 of 7 for 23 yards, was also picked off and sacked three times. It didn’t help that the two alternated possessions in the second half with neither able to find a rhythm. Adam Gase even said as much, “It’s hard to put it all on them when you get the ball and you’re not expecting it.”
Dan Quinn’s history suggests that we’ll see plenty of Kurt Benkert and Garrett Grayson in the final preseason game. Though he was far less than spectacular, Matt Ryan got his work in and we won’t see backup Matt Schaub. The Falcons struggled on offense the entire preseason scoring a total of 20 points through three games. And that was with the starters in for parts of every contest. It’s hard to imagine things getting much better in the finale.
Benkert was the most productive of Atlanta’s QB’s last week throwing for 89 yards. However, he completed only 6 of 14 and took a sack. He’s completed just 46.2 percent of his passes this preseason with two interceptions while being sacked four times. Grayson didn’t play last week and is 5 of 13 for 52 yards in two games. It’s hard to believe those two can do what Ryan and Schaub failed to do in the first three games.
Coaching History
Gase had been consistent in the preseason over his first two seasons, going 2-2 in both 2016 and 2017. Things are off the rails this year with the Fins going 0-3 SU and ATS, dropping his overall record to 4-7 SU and ATS.
The Falcons are another sign of just how meaningless preseason records are. They went winless last season and made a run to the postseason, and they’ve lost all three this year to run their losing skid to seven in a row while failing to cover each time. In fact, the Falcons are 0-9 ATS in their last nine exhibition games and Quinn is 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS in his career.
Free ATS Pick
Both teams would certainly like to enter the regular season on a high note and getting a win in the finale would help in that regard. We’ve watched the clubs struggle offensively all preseason and we probably won’t see many of the starters take the field, which makes us wonder where the points are going to come from.
We’ve seen the second and third teamers make enough mistakes that it wouldn’t surprise me to see some defensive scores or turnovers setting up a short field. That will make it easier for points to be scored and the over has a chance with the total coming in low. Miami has a battle for the backup QB job still in play and I expect Osweiler and Fales to perform better, especially against Atlanta’s reserves and that should be enough to get them a victory.
NFL Betting Odds: Dolphins 23, Falcons 19
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