With time running out to make a playoff push the pressure is on the Miami Dolphins to win games. They’re faced with a difficult test on Thanksgiving night visiting the Green Bay Packers in the Week 13 edition of Thursday Night Football. A bad start to the season that saw Tua Tagovailoa miss time with an injury and the team lose six of its first eight games has Miami desperately trying to claw back into contention. Tua’s return sparked an offense that was putrid through the first six games. In four starts since his return Tagovailoa completed better than 77 percent of his passes and the Fins averaged 27.8 points, a more than two-touchdown improvement over their first six outings. The early betting line at the Crypto sportsbook has the Packers as a 3.5-point favorite.
NFL Betting Lines
Miami Dolphins +3.5 / ML +160
Green Bay Packers -3.5 / ML -190
Over / Under 47.5
When you have winners you also have losers, and unfortunately I fell into the latter category on last Thursday’s NFL same game parlay. I’m not sure if the weather had anything to do with the outcome, but it wasn’t a good night for Pittsburgh, losing outright to the Browns 24-19 as a 3.5-point favorite. The snowstorm didn’t affect the offenses with the teams going over the closing total of 37. The Steelers had their five-game winning streak snapped and the Browns beat the top teams in the AFC North in a span of four games after knocking off Baltimore in Week 8.
This interconference tilt has playoff implications all over it. The Packers still have a shot at winning the NFC North title but more likely they’re a wild card team. They are currently in the playoff field, but that can change in the volatile NFC. And the Dolphins pretty much have to win out to reach the postseason. The good news for Miami is that the offense has definitely picked things up once Tua returned. He struggled in the first two games then missed four with a concussion. Over that span the club averaged less than 12 points a game without ever topping the 20-point mark.
The Dolphins have the playmakers and talent that were part of last season’s No. 1 ranked offense. And with Tua dropping dimes exploiting a Green Bay defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in most key defensive stats is a good possibility. One key for Miami is to value the football. They’ve turned it over 11 times with Tua chucking four interceptions. Green Bay has a knack for getting the ball with 19 takeaways through 10 games. That number represents the fourth-most in the NFL with the Pack boasting a plus-5 turnover differential.
A night game at Lambeau Field in late November means we could potentially have foul weather. We know it’s going to be cold and any other additional hazards will impact the offenses. Both teams like to throw the football and that part of the game is at the mercy of Mother Nature. When I saw the early line total I was a little taken aback.
Sure the Fins have been more efficient with Tagovailoa but he has his flaws. In his lone career start against Green Bay during the 2022 season he threw for 310 yards and a touchdown, but he was also intercepted three times thwarting potential scoring drives. Jordan Love isn’t immune to turnovers, either. Green Bay’s QB has thrown at least one interception in each of his first eight starts, and despite missing a pair of games earlier in the year he’s tied for the league-lead with 11.
The Packers have been good against AFC opponents winning all four games this season and six in a row dating back to the end of last season. And having home field advantage in a hostile environment should be enough to give them a cover.
49ers at Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
Packers -3.5
Dolphins / Packers UNDER 47.5
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