Drew Brees led the league in passing yards three of the previous four seasons heading into the 2018-19 campaign. With most everyone back in tow, the former NFL MVP was expected to once again be in the mix for the title. It didn’t come to pass. In fact, he regressed so terribly the last five weeks of the regular season that he failed to even surpass the 4,000 yard plateau. But with Michael Thomas inked for the foreseeable future and pass catching reinforcements brought in, linemakers at online sportsbooks are expecting a bounce back campaign from the veteran in his year 40 season. The betting action is currently slanted against the Saints QB1 with a heavy amount of juice currently riding the under of both his passing yards ( -200 ) accrued and touchdowns ( -129 ) thrown for the season.
Total Passing Yards: 4300.5
Total Passing TD: 30.5
Season Outlook
With a bulk of last year’s squad that got robbed by the refs in the NFC title game returning, the Saints ( +955 ) are one of the favorites to reach and win Super Bowl LIV. In fact, only the Patriots and Chiefs have shorter odds of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come the season’s end. New Orleans offers up just north of a 4-1 return to seal the deal in the conference championship game this time around, and is one of four teams with at least a 10.5-game season win total. As much as the Saints have looked to run the pigskin the last couple seasons, there is some turnover in that department with Mark Ingram no longer playing the thunder to Alvin Kamara’s lightning. It could take some time for Latavius Murray to adapt to his new role. With that, the burden will fall on the shoulders of the wily veteran to get the passing game running effectively right from the get go. If not, Brees will have a very tough time surpassing his passing yards prop with him currently on the downswing of his career evidenced by averaging 4,163 passing yards the last couple seasons.
New Orleans Saints Football Schedule
Week 1: Texans
Week 2: @Rams
Week 3: @Seahawks
Week 4: Cowboys
Week 5: Buccaneers
Week 6: @Jaguars
Week 7: @ Bears
Week 8: Cardinals
Week 9: Bye Week
Week 10: Falcons
Week 11: @Buccaneers
Week 12: Panthers
Week 13: @Falcons
Week 14: 49ers
Week 15: Colts
Week 16: @Titans
Week 17: @Panthers
Schedule Breakdown
If Brees is able to throw for a ton of yardage and cap it off with another 30+ touchdowns passes, he will have earned it. The schedule is a tale of two halves; the first is a bear and very daunting but the back half makes up for it with a number of penetrable defenses lined up. At least when going by 2018’s defensive outputs. Keep in mind things often change quickly in the NFL, so bad defenses could become great and vice versa. That said, the Saints are going to have a tough time excelling through the air leading up to the Week 9 bye with five of the eight opponents possessing pass defenses considered above average a season ago. After getting to tee off on the Bucs porous unit, the Saints will then have to deal with the Jaguars and Bears on the road before returning home to host Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals; he’ll be back from suspension by then. The schedule looks much more palatable following the bye. It offers Brees up a good number of opportunities to give over supporters a chance to get some skin back in the game while under supporters will be forced to hold their breath.
The Bets
Thomas and Kamara are two of the best and most dynamic players in the league at their respective positions. That stance is supported by each being drafted through the first two rounds of fantasy football drafts. But as good as they are, Brees needs another target he can depend on when opposing defenses take them out of a play. He didn’t have that last year, but will in 2019-20 with Jared Cook coming in from Oakland where he led the Raiders in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. Brees hasn’t had a dependable tight end to count on since the heydays of Jimmy Graham. His addition to the offense could take what’s been a floundering Saints offense to new heights.
While New Orleans is forecasted to be one of the better teams in the NFC, I still think its success ultimately depends upon the offense running the football successfully and the defense continuing to shut down the run and get after quarterbacks. The days of No. 9 slinging the pigskin around the ball yard and throwing for 3 spins and 3 TD per game are over. Brees tired in the late stages of the regular season last year, and I’m wondering if father time is knocking on his door. Asking him to topple the fifth highest passing yards total at top rated sportsbooks is a bit rich for my blood. He’ll get his fair share of touchdowns no doubt, but Murray was brought in to seal the deal around the goal line for a reason. I’m in full agreeance with the betting markets on Brees – he’s not throwing more than 30 touchdown passes.
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