Dallas may have some buyer’s remorse after signing Ezekiel Elliott to a six-year, $90 million contract extension with $50 million of guaranteed money two years ago. Elliott had a solid season in 2019, but he had the worst season of his career in 2020. The three-time Pro Bowl selection ran for a career-low 979 yards and six touchdowns, averaging a career-worst 4.0 YPC. Additionally, he lost four fumbles after losing just five fumbles in his first four seasons in the NFL.
The Cowboys need more from their standout running back if they want to return to the playoffs after two straight subpar seasons. A healthy Dak Prescott should help take the pressure off the ground game, but Elliott must return to form in 2021.
Ezekiel Elliott Regular Season Rushing Yards
Over 1100.5 -112
Under 1100.5 -112
A healthy offensive line will go a long way towards improvement from Elliott during the 2021 season. In 2020, La’El Collins missed the entire season after showing up at training camp overweight. Collins sustained a hip injury and was placed on injury reserve before the start of the regular season. He has dealt with minor injuries this training camp, but he is expected to be ready to play his first game since 2019.
Standout left tackle Tyron Smith played in just two games last season. The four-time All Pro selection was forced to undergo neck surgery in October, ending his 2020 campaign early.
Any time you hear about a neck injury, that is cause for increased concern, but early indications are that Smith is back to his usual self. That’s important for the Cowboys, as Smith is the anchor of the offensive line.
Zack Martin missed six games last year due to injury, leading to Martin seeing his run of six straight All-Pro selections snapped. Martin is one of the best interior linemen in the NFL, and that’s why he was named a First Team All-Pro in 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019. Fortunately, he was largely shut down as a precaution, as the Cowboys thought it senseless to rush him back from a strained calf for a throwaway season.
The other two offensive linemen are center Tyler Biadasz and left guard Connor Williams. Biadasz and Williams are clearly a tier under the other three linemen, but they have played well enough during their time in the league.
Elliott has run for at least 1,350 yards in three of his five seasons in the NFL. His numbers should see an uptick as long as the offensive line avoids major injury, but this unit shouldn’t be as snake-bitten as it was in 2020. That makes the over the better side to bet.
Ezekiel Elliott Regular Season Rushing and Receiving Touchdowns
Over 11.5 -112
Under 11.5 -112
The presence of Tony Pollard will hurt Elliott’s chances of getting to his yardage and touchdown numbers. Pollard has been a solid back-up running back during his two years in the NFL.
He ran for 455 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 5.3 YPC as a rookie in 2019. Pollard followed that up by running for 435 yards with 4.3 YPC and four touchdowns last season. Additionally, we saw an increased role for Pollard in the passing game in 2020.
Dallas has an impressive trio of receivers that will haul in their fair share of touchdowns from Dak Prescott. Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb should all thrive with Prescott back on the field, as this offense averaged 392 YPG through the air in games he played. However, Cooper is the only real red zone threat, as the Cowboys don’t have a reliable pass catching tight end despite Dalton Schultz’s surprising 2020 campaign.
Will Ezekiel Elliott Lead the NFL in Rushing Yards?
Yes +1400
Elliott has led the NFL in rushing twice (2016 and 2018) in his five seasons in the league. Also, he led the league in rushing yards per game in each of his first three seasons. That gives him a better chance than most to lead the NFL in rushing yards. Dallas is in a division without many good run defenses, and this offensive line can pave the way to a third rushing title. Pollard and Mike McCarthy’s philosophy might hold him back though.
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